05.10.2015

Russia in Syria – Update 2


At the moment there are the following Russian aircrafts on the Latakia base involved in the campaign against IS (Islamic State): 4 SU-30SM, 6 SU-34S, 12 SU-24M, 12 SU-25SM. There are also MI-8 (Hip) multipurpose helicopters and MI-24 (Hind) helicopter gunships, which implies that they will be eventually become active in ground combat.

The Russians mainly use air to ground missiles Kh-29 and S-25L. They further use 500 kg smart bombs, either laser guided KAB-500L, satellite (GLONASS) guided KAB-500S-E, and concrete-piercing BetAB-500.

There are also many surveillance drones in operation, probably RPV PCHELA-1T, though there is understandably no further information available.

Russia’s ministry of defense announced the deployment of its navy cruiser the Moskva to Latakia. The Moskva is armed with a complement of 64 S-300 ship-to-air missiles, Russia’s most powerful anti-aircraft weapon.
navy cruiser Moskva
Deployment of S-300s — or other similarly sophisticated systems, also known as triple-digit Sams — has long been one of the Pentagon’s biggest fears in the Middle East. The S-300 system, which has an operating range of 150 km, is capable of destroying all but the most sophisticated stealth aircraft. This means that missions flown by the US-led coalition (whose participants mainly use F-16 jets) are now highly vulnerable. Even Britain’s deployment of Tornados and Typhoons at the Royal Air Force base at Akrotiri, Cyprus, is threatened by the Russian missiles.

On the night of October 2, six Russian SU-30 SM fighters took off from the Jableh/Hmimim airbase to intercept four Israeli F-15 fighters which were flying in attack formation and were approaching Latakia from the sea.

Surprised by an unexpected situation and apparently not prepared for a dogfight with the feared Russian multipurpose fighters, Israeli pilots quickly turned back south at high speed towards Lebanon. The Lebanese army officially announced that four “enemy aircraft” had crossed Lebanese airspace.
SU-30SM 4
A Turkish security official said Turkish radar locked onto a Russian aircraft as it was bombing Al Yamdiyyah, a Syrian village directly on the Turkish border near the province of Hatay . He said Turkish fighter jets would have attacked had it crossed into Turkish airspace. But a US military official suggested the incident had come close to sparking an armed confrontation. Reading from a report, he said the Russian aircraft had violated Turkish air space by five miles and that Turkish F-16 jets had started, but that the Russian aircraft had returned to Syrian airspace before they could respond.

The village Al Yamdiyyah, in a mountainous region of northern Latakia province, has been a prime route for smuggling people and goods between Turkey and Syria and reportedly has functioned as a key entry for weapons shipped to Syrian rebels.

Turkey has maintained a buffer zone five miles inside Syria since June 2012, when a Syrian air defense missile shot down a Turkish fighter plane that had strayed into Syrian airspace. Under revised rules of engagement put in effect then, the Turkish air force would perceive any target coming within five miles of the Turkish border as an enemy and attack it.

In a second incident, the Turkish military said a MiG-29 fighter jet had approached two of its F-16s, locking its radar on to them as they patrolled the border.

The Turkish foreign ministry said it had summoned Moscow’s ambassador to protest the border violations and urged Russia against any repeat, warning that it would be held “responsible for any undesired incident that may occur.”

It seems that the ties between Ankara and Moscow are getting strained. “Assad has committed state terrorism, and unfortunately you find Russia and Iran defending him,” Turkish President Erdogan was telling a crowd of supporters in Strasbourg, France.
President Basharal-Assad 10 2015
US President Obama allegedly endorsed the idea for an increased air campaign against IS from the Incirlik air base in Turkey and a ground offensive by both Kurdish and Arab militias against Raqqa, although important details still need to be worked out.

According to the New York Times: “President Obama last week approved two important steps to set the offensive in motion over the coming weeks, officials said. Mr. Obama ordered the Pentagon, for the first time, to directly provide ammunition and perhaps some weapons to Syrian opposition forces on the ground.”

“Mr. Obama said he would take all steps necessary to combat the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. The new approach relies on Arab fighters whose commanders have been screened by American forces and Kurdish fighters who are more battle-tested and whose loyalties Washington can count on.”

There are only tiny and insignificant groups of Arab fighters who are not radical Islamists and who are willing to cooperate with the Kurdish YPG, and all Islamic militias oppose the Kurds. This plan will never work and the announcement was probably only made to pacify the neocon faction in the US administration and to save face.
Putin Iran
It seems that Russia, Iran, Syria, Iraq have formed a Middle Eastern alliance. The four countries have set up a coordination center in Baghdad and agreed to share military information.

Iran gets the support of the Russian military as it aims to protect the delicate regional nexus that is the source of Tehran’s political and economic influence. It is absolutely critical for Iran to keep Assad in power, as the destruction of the Syrian state would effectively cut the supply line between Iran and Hezbollah.

Therefore a decision has been made, in close coordination with the Russians and the Assad government, to increase the number of fighters on the ground through additional deployment of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and a network of local and foreign militias.

The support also could involve more Iranian commanders, military advisers, and expert fighters assigned to militia units.. Experts believe that Iran at the moment has some 7,000 IRGC members and Iranian paramilitary volunteers operating in Syria.

The transfer of the additional troops started already in July and appearently was timed to coincide with the Russian air campaign.
Qasem Soleimaini 3
As was reported here back in June, the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, Qasem Soleimaini, then visited a town north of Latakia near rebel positions. Following that visit, he promised that Tehran and Damascus were set to unveil a new strategy that would “surprise the world.” A month later, Soleimani visited Russia and held meetings in Moscow.

We know now, what he meant with his promise of a surprising new strategy.

To sum it up:

Iran sensed an epic opportunity to capitalize on Washington’s incompetence and sent its most powerful general to Russia where a proposal was made to upend the Middle Eastern balance of power. The Kremlin loved the idea because after all, Moscow is hurting from Western economic warfare (sanctions, low oil price, ruble speculation). Russian President Putin is keen on showing the West that, in the wake of the controversy surrounding the conflict in the Ukraine, Russia isn’t set to back down. Thanks to the fact that the USA chose extremists as its proxies of choice in Syria, Russia is able to frame its involvement as a “war on terror” and thanks to Russia’s involvement, Iran is able to prepare a massive ground invasion into Syria under the cover of Russian air support. 

Russia in Syria – Update 1


The pace of Russian actions in Syria is breathtaking. Every day dozens of sorties are flown.

Russia constantly increases the number of aircrafts deployed to Syria. IHS Jane counted four SU-30SM multirole combat aircraft, 12 SU-25 frogfoot ground attack aircraft, 12 SU-24M Fencer attack fighters, and six KA-52 attack helicopters (another reports mentions Mi-24 and Mi-17 helicopters). The planes are protected by at least three SA-22 anti-aircraft systems and Pchela-1T drones who constantly fly reconnaissance missions.

Russian troops are stationed at the Istamo weapons storage complex and the Al-Sanobar military complex, both north of the Latakia base.

Members of IS (Islamic State) reportedly already tried to mount an attack on the airbase, but they were ambushed and killed or captured. The ambushed militants had a detailed plan of the air base and clear satellite images marked with key military installations (according to Russian sources jihadist fighters until now managed to avoid attacks from government forces because NATO provided satellite information to them).

Russia has further deployed T-90 tanks, BTR-82A/B wheeled armored-fighting vehicles with 30 mm cannon turrets, and new artillery weapons, (reportedly 152 millimeter systems). Russia equipped a newly formed armored brigade of Hezbollah with 76 T-72 and T-55 tanks.
Russia air strikes Syria 2
In the last days the Russian Air Force made their presence felt as they carried out powerful airstrikes against an IS command center in Al-Quraytayn and an IS convoy attempting to make their way to the Teefor-Palmyra Highway.

The IS capital Raqqa and surrounding areas were hit at least 26 times, including the Tabaqa Airport and Tabaqa National Hospital, which IS has converted to its primary military base and headquarters. In Al-Tabqa an IS training camp and an arms depot were destroyed with KAB-500 laser-guided bombs. 

Many terrorists have been forced to flee to safer quarters outside Syria. Tribesmen reported that convoys of IS fighters and their families are leaving the cities of Al-Mayadeen and AbuKamaal to reach the nearby Iraqi province of Al-‘Anbar after Russian air strikes hit targets along the Deir Ezzor-Raqqa International Highway and the Al-Mayadeen-Deir Ezzor Road.

In Idlib province a jihadist training center and a workshop producing suicide belts were hit, several depots with ammunitions and arms were eliminated with KAB-500 bombs.

Until now at least four command centers of IS have been destroyed with BETAB-500 bunker-busting air bombs. According to military sources IS fighters are in a state of panic and more than 600 have deserted.
SU-25 frogfoot
The Kremlin initially wanted to keep the increased military presence and new soldiers and equipment out of the limelight because 1. The Islamic terror gangs and their Western funders should not have been able to gather military information via press reports, 2. The risks of this mission are high and in the case of failure the Russian media should have been able to plausibly downplay the increased military efforts.

For exactly the same reasons Western journalists were instantly focussing on Russia’s Syrian engagement, investigating, analyzing, and trying to collect intelligence via “citizen journalists.”

The US administration is divided on this issue. A few sane minds, including President Obama, are to some extent afraid of the Islamic terror gangs, trying to ease tensions with Russia, and tacitly approving Russia’s actions against the Islamic insurgents. The removal of Patriot missiles from Turkeys border with Syria was arranged by this group.

The neocon faction, (Ashton B. Carter, Susan Rice, Victoria Nuland, Samantha Powers, and others) tries to hinder any efficient steps against the Islamic terrorists and they ordered Bulgaria and Greek to deny Russian cargo planes passage. Bulgaria obliged and Russia therefore has to use the Iran/Iraq route. President Obama is said to have been infuriated because the request to Bulgaria and Greece was made without his knowledge. Obama also has hinted that he will not do anything against the Russian efforts. 

This doesn’t exonerate Obama from joining the choir of perjurers and warmongers in his recent UN speech, where he stated: “The evidence is overwhelming that the Assad regime used such weapons on August 21st. UN inspectors gave a clear accounting that advanced rockets fired large quantities of sarin gas at civilians. These rockets were fired from a regime-controlled neighborhood and landed in opposition neighborhoods.”

A blatant lie because the rockets only had a range of two kilometers and couldn’t have come from army-controlled areas. The UN inspectors never accused Syria of the nerve gas attacks.

Russian President Vladimir Putin in the same session told the UN assembly:

… It is hypocritical and irresponsible to make declarations about the threat of terrorism and at the same time turn a blind eye to the channels used to finance and support terrorists, including revenues from drug trafficking, the illegal oil trade and the arms trade.

“It is equally irresponsible to manipulate extremist groups and use them to achieve your political goals, hoping that later you’ll find a way to get rid of them or somehow eliminate them.

“I’d like to tell those who engage in this: Gentlemen, the people you are dealing with are cruel but they are not dumb. They are as smart as you are. So, it’s a big question: who’s playing whom here? The recent incident where the most ‘moderate’ opposition group handed over their weapons to terrorists is a vivid example of that.”

One couldn’t say it better and the global public agreed — even the readers of the New York Daily News preferred Putin’s speech to Obamas 94 to 6 percent. No wonder that with an approval rating of 89 percent in his home country,  Putin is probably the world’s most popular leader. 
Putin Obama 8
US and European media are asserting that Russian jets are not really targeting IS (Islamic State), but instead the good guys from Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Qaeda) and Ahrar al-Scham, who want to relieve Syria from the horror’s of butcher Assad. These (moderate) Islamic terrorists are now admittedly supported by the CIA.

There is no limit to the hypocrisy of Western media, which decries Russian airstrikes and cites reports of civilian casualties, dutifully provided by SOHR (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights), while belittling the US attack on a hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan, and the slaughter of at least 22 people as collateral damage. 12 doctors and nurses from MSF (Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières) were killed. The hospital was well known to US forces, the bombing continued despite desperate calls of MSF to US officers. This is not an accident, this is a warcrime and should be referred to the ICC.

The MSF president: “This attack is abhorrent and a grave violation of International Humanitarian Law. We demand total transparency from Coalition forces. We cannot accept that this horrific loss of life will simply be dismissed as ‘collateral damage’.

The reports about civilian casualties from Russian airstrikes in Syria included the photo of a bleeding girl posted on Twitter and the claim that air strikes in Homs killed 33 civilians, including 3 children and a White Helmets volunteer. But the girl shown was wounded on September 25, five days before the air campaign began. The White Helmets organization (formerly called the Syria Civil Defense) is Western funded, supports various terrorist organizations, and according to video evidence has helped with conducting executions and deposing corpses of executed army soldiers.

It seems that Western journalists are pushing to the limit, trying to find out how much falsehood their readers and viewers can bear. This will not endear them to a significant part of the audience, because lucid and intelligent people don’t want to be treated like idiots.

While the Western media workers are fuming, real estate tycoon and presidential contender Donald Trump takes it easy and declares: “Now they’re going into Syria, there are so many traps, there are so many problems. When I heard they were going in to fight ISIS, I said, ‘Great, let them.’”

We will find out soon, if Russia gets trapped, because the timeframe of the mission is limited to four months. For now it looks that Western strategists and propagandists are trapped in their web of lies after their bluff of fighting IS while clandestinely supporting it has been called.

30.09.2015

Judo in geopolitics


The martial art of judo rests on the idea that a smaller, weaker person can use its opponent’s size and strength to its own advantage and Russian President Vladimir Putin, by his own account, took up martial arts as a slight boy to protect himself from bigger courtyard bullies.

Putin at the moment indeed plays a sort of geopolitical judo by evading the attacks of the West and waiting till his adversaries have pushed forward far enough that he can pull them off balance.

This is not a new tactic, it has been used throughout history, most notably in WW II, when a German army of three million soldiers got exhausted in the far lands of Russia to finally be destroyed in the epic battle of Stalingrad.

That this tactic despite countless warning examples still works, confirms again Hegel’s quote: “The only thing we learn from history is, that humans don’t learn from history.”

Russia is undoubtedly the smaller, weaker geopolitical judoka. Despite controling a formidable nuclear arsenal, its power has obviously faded since Soviet days, and it is no match for the USA, whose military expenditures, according to SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute), outrank it by more than seven to one.

So what should Russia do against the world’s remaining superpower? The answer is to take a lesson from the judo handbook and wait for the right moment to use America’s clout against it. That moment may be now, as Washington has overplayed its hand and has maneuvered itself into a corner in Syria as well as in the Ukraine.
Putin Judo 2
It has yet to be seen how the judo match in the Ukraine plays out, as the hangover after the Maidan party has set in, corrupt oligarchs promise to fight corruption, and cash trapped governments promise to pay the bills of the costly Ukraine/Russia economic divorce.

The Syrian match on the other hand is fast reaching a culmination point where defining changes take place. The die will be cast soon and a winner be declared. One winner (the weapons industry) and one loser (the Syrian people) have emerged already now.

First things first: IS (Islamic State) basically is a creation of Western agencies and it receives continuing support from Turkey and various Gulf states. Turkeys MIT has organized truck convoys with weapons to IS, it enables the transfer and sale of looted industrial machinery, historic artifacts, and oil, it has dedicated whole hospital wards for the treatment and recovery of IS fighters. IS commandos have attacked Kobane and other Kurdish border towns from Turkish territory in plain sight of massive Turkish military.

Brand new US weapons and ammunition were found in IS weapons caches, IS specialists miraculously were instantly able to operate conquered US made tanks, artillery, and other sophisticated equipment which normally needs thoroughly trained experts; satellite images and other sensitive intel were found in the possession of killed Islamic fighters.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called into question the earnestness of US efforts against IS and stated, that concerned colleagues from within the US-led anti-IS coalition informed him that the US-military did not give clearances to pilots even though they clearly had located and identified IS positions.

Major General Eizza Zawir, commander of the Kurdish Peshmerga’s fourth division, told reporters that he sees the busy supply lines of IS less than 3 kilometer away but is not allowed by the USA to hit them. Senior Jordanian military officers told the same. Yazidi militias complained that they waited in vain for US help as they tried to fend off IS assaults.

82 percent of Syrians believe that the West is behind IS, a sentiment that is shared with most of the Arab public. The circumstantial evidence of Western foul play is overwhelming, but a smoking gun will not be found, because after a century of black ops the spy agencies know how to conceal their traces.

Countless conspiracy theories are floating on the internet (‎Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is a Mossad or CIA asset or is Israeli actor Simon Elliot). Some of them are Western psy-ops, spread to be easily dismissed so that the whole notion of Western involvement can be discredited.

Despite smoke screening (censoring, misleading, lying), common sense alone makes it clear that the US-led coalition’s fight against IS is a farce, and Western propaganda has increasing problems to mask the glaring discrepancy between the stated intent to fight the IS brutes and the reality of supporting them.
Putin judo 3
Putin only needs to exploit this discrepancy and to call the US bluff. It will be a hell of a job for the Western press to prevent the castle of lies tumbling down. Pundits and editorial writers probably spend already sleepless nights pondering about the formulations which are ambiguous and nonsensical enough to distract and confuse the trusting and gullible public.

Orwell’s 1984 squared.

================

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
Yogi Berra

Lets give it a try nevertheless:

Russia (and possibly China) will quietly build up forces, gather information, and at a convenient moment suddenly strike not only IS, but also Jabhat al-Nusrah and Ahrar al-Sham with overwhelming might. The SOHR (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights) will decry civilian casualties and the pictures of bloody corpses of children will deluge Western front pages, but thats all what the USA can do against the demise of their secret friends.

When all is said and done, Russia will have proven (rightfully or not), that it doesn’t sell out its friends, a fact which may resonate in many places. Putin will have reinforced his status as a world leader. He is poised to become an icon of the left, undeserved though, because he is not the untainted hero as some discontented and desperate souls would like to see him. The good people of the world will have to wait for their messiah a little bit longer.
Putin Erdogan 1
Putin is a nationalist and pragmatist. Russia has close economic ties with Turkey and Israel, it buys military hardware from Israel. No BDS (boycott, divestment, sanctions).

Putin is friends with both  Erdogan and Netanyahu, a fact which may help to find compromises and avoid deadly confrontations, but also could be a reason, why Russia didn’t step in forcefully to help Syria destroy the Islamic terrorists in 2011 /12.

Since September 21, when Netanyahu rushed to Moscow to clear matters with his friend Putin, negotiate a “security agreement,” and set up a bilateral coordination team to prevent the countries accidentally trading fire, Israeli jets and artillery have struck several times military targets in Syria. Putin voiced concern but there is not much else he can do. (What would be the appropriate judo move against a rogue state with 200 nuclear war heads?)
Putin Netanyahu 4
Putin is not a saint, but he is a pragmatist and realist. Beside being a judo aficionado, he was a KGB operative in East Germany when the Berlin Wall fell, and he must be nursing bitter memories of how Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev was outmaneuvered and treated like a beggar by the West on the question of German unification and NATO expansion.

Putin’s resulting mistrust of the West is well placed and the most appropriate attitude in his ongoing political dealings.

20.09.2015

Imperialist War is a Bi-Partisan Problem


Cindy Sheehan

The following text is part of the Newsletter #92
http://cindysheehanssoapbox.blogspot.com/2015/09/revolutionary-organization-of-labor-usa.html
The text is posted here in full length because it could be easily overlooked when only the link is provided.

“I do not hesitate one second to state clearly and unmistakably: I belong to the American resistance movement which fights against American imperialism, just as the resistance movement fought against Hitler.”
–Paul Robeson

I believe that just as important as it is to study the great thinkers, revolutionaries, and philosophers of the past, we should use that information to inform our lives as we draw from our own past and experiences.

It took me awhile to look at the world and my past through a revolutionary, anti-Imperialist lens. When my son Casey Sheehan was first killed in Iraq in 2004, my eyes were clouded by a red-hot hatred of George Bush and the Republican Party that I believed had murdered my son.

I quickly learned though through much trial, heartbreak and profound disappointment that even though BushCo were a HUGE problem, it was not THE problem. Unfortunately, most of my comrades during the Bush regime years have not come to that same conclusion.
Cindy Sheehan Hugo Chavez
Of course, a relative handful of others and I, have continued the struggle against US Imperialism since the oppressors allowed Bush to leave office and Obama to move in as the head C.E.O. of USA Murder, Inc. However, the antiwar movement was effectively co-opted and demobilized as far back as 2006 when the Democratic half of Imperialism reared its ugly head.

A few of the Obama regime’s lowlights include: the expansion of US troops to Afghanistan; the continuing and now expanding occupation of Iraq; greatly expanding the use of “drone-bombing”; “kill” lists; the absolute destruction of Libya; increased tensions and hostilities with Russia as the Obama regime supports neo-fascists in Ukraine; and the creation of IS and all of its crimes with increased incursions into Syria, Yemen, and Kurdish areas. Most of these “Nobel Prize” winning events were met with little opposition, and in fact with outrageous shows of support from the same people who would have apoplectic fits if, say, a McCain or Romney regime were pulling the same disastrous stunts.

Currently, we have the “Iran Nuclear Treaty” deal. Of course, the “deal” was forced on Iran (which by all accounts and evidence is NOT seeking a nuclear bomb and does not have Imperial or colonial designs like the US and Iran’s closer neighbor, Israel).  Top Iranian officials signed the “deal” to, I am sure, alleviate some of the crippling economic sanctions that were hurting them. [That is, both the Iranian rich and the Iranian people. — the editor]

The treaty is one-sided and negotiated by a “super” power that has thousands of atomic weapons at its disposal, and, by the way, the only nation that ever used atomic weapons against civilian populations. The treaty is opposed by the colonist and Zionist state of Israel, which has hundreds of nuclear weapons on hand and has been shown to be like its benefactor: not opposed to brutally slaughtering innocents.

The same forces and organizations that have given Obama a free-pass when it comes to his crimes against humanity, are now in an uproar because the Republican sector of the US Imperialist state opposes this treaty and the “peace” NGOs are telling us that this “deal” is the “best chance for peace in the Middle East.” My response is “seriously?”

I have been asked to sign petitions and write letters to members of Congress to urge them to pass the treaty, but these petitions and letters NEVER mention the fact that the USA and the USA/Israel collaboration are in fact the biggest blocks to “peace in the Middle East” and are responsible for killing millions, directly or indirectly through terrorist proxies.

The state of Iran, with all of its issues, is NOT the major deterrent to peace in the Middle East or the biggest sponsor of terrorism. Plainly and simply, that would be the USA.

Considering the fact that the USA has never entered into a treaty it hasn’t broken (especially with indigenous populations), I am not sure what all of this cheerleading for this newest treaty is about, really. However, I suspect it is just another hammer to use to beat the dead horse of partisan politics with: “Democrats good and peaceful” vs. “Republicans bad and warlike.”

In my humble opinion, the best chance for “peace in the Middle East” would include, but not be limited to:

1)  The US removing all occupying forces from the Middle East and closing all Military bases and CIA /covert operations;

2)  The US stopping support to “terrorist” organizations such as al Qaeda and IS (Islamic State);

3)  Israel ending its occupation of Gaza and territorial expansion with focus being on the right of return and a Palestinian state;

4)  The US paying reparations to the people it has harmed and giving aid for rebuilding and repair.

The US (under Obama) is greatly expanding its military/economic Empire to Africa and is trying to isolate Russia and China, so “peace in the Middle East” is actually just one piece of the Imperial pie.

The antiwar movement has been effectively neutralized by its affiliation with and devotion to the Democrat Party, but we as true revolutionary anti-Imperialists must never waver in our resolve to resist and smash the US Empire and to try to lead others to the same conclusions and principled action.
Cindy Sheehan 4

Comments on a recommended website


The recommended Website is https://consortiumnews.com/ and the linked articles plus associated comments are about the US political scene and about Syria. To understand the comments it is necessary to read the articles, which are all well formulated and partly informative.


I enjoyed the article and I’m even able to comment now after two early comments were not accepted (probable because of software flaws and not because of their critical content).

The articles on Consortiumnews are not unaffected by the captivating propaganda of Western news organizations (brutal Assad regime), they often use carelessly and thoughtlessly the propagandists terminology (Syria’s “civil war” instead of invasion, aggression, terrorist insurgency), but show a genuine desire to break out of the ideological cage and present alternative storylines.

Concerning the Middle East, I still miss the environmental and social dimension:

Water grab by the South-eastern Anatolia Dam project and by Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights. Increased desertification of the Middle East and long lasting droughts. Overpopulation with no future for young men.

Unrealistic expectations raised by media presentations of a clean and luxurious Western consumer paradise. A paradise which is clearly unachievable and even in the most affluent countries exists only for a tiny minority on top of the food chain.

The neocon project is probably not substantially different from other organizations and pressure groups which were used throughout history by the ruling elites as “control rooms” or operation centers to coordinate policies and propaganda. One could also discuss if the neocons are indeed central coordinators or just one of an assortment of likeminded groups. There are surely interconnections with AIPAC. ALEC, US Chamber of Commerce, The Family (The Fellowship), Bilderberg, and various billionaire-funded NGO’s, foundations, think tanks.

I also would like to have more infos about the inner working and the members of the neocon project. Elliott Abrams and Robert Kagan were mentioned, in the US administration I made out Ashton B. Carter, Susan Rice, Victoria Nuland, Samantha Powers. There are for sure many more and a list of names just to get started would be helpful.

Is Hillary Clinton a neocon? Was Bill Clinton a crypto-neocon? Are the neocons bipartisan?

This would be worth writing a book about but a seasoned journalist like Robert Parry can maybe manage to compress the most essential information into a future article. Thank you in advance,

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This article is mostly acceptable, though a few annotations and corrections are necessary.

Putin can indeed be blamed partly for the Syrian mess, because a more decisive support of the Government in the early stages of the uprising or bombing campaigns against Jabhat al-Nusra and IS in 2013 would have quelled the insurgency. Russia also should have moved against Turkey, but Putin didn’t want to jeopardize trade with Turkey. He proposed even a “Turkish Stream” natural gas pipeline, but negotiations about this project fortunately have collapsed, so Russia doesn’t have to take care anymore about Turkish sensibilities.

I don’t agree with the sentence: “So, although it’s surely true that Syrian security forces struck back fiercely at times in the brutal civil war…” This appears to be a concession to the popular presumption, established via million times repeated catchphrases (butcher Assad), that Syria is a brutal totalitarian dictatorship, where the Sunni majority is suppressed by an Alawite clique.

The classification of the Syrian war as a “civil war” is debatable, it could as well be seen as an undeclared war of aggression by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Israel, the USA).

I also object to the sentence: “The obvious solution would be a power-sharing arrangement that gives Sunnis more of a say.”

Sunni are represented sufficiently and pols in 2012 and 2013 showed, that the majority of Sunnis support Bashar al-Assad. Sunnis are represented in the government as well as in the security apparatus and account for between 60 and 65 percent of the regular army. Many high ranking officers are Sunni.

Even a West Point analysis had to acknowledge that
https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/syrias-sunnis-and-the-regimes-resilience.

In Syria’s 30-strong cabinet only two ministers are Alawite. The prime minister is Sunni, as are the interior minister, the justice minister, the foreign minister, even the defense minister.

Beside that, who should take part in a power sharing transitional government? Who of the external opposition figures has enough support of the Syrian population to justify an inclusion in a power sharing government; who could be entrusted with reconciling the war-torn nation?

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This article completely misses the point and it starts already with the three introductory questions, who’s formulation seem to deliberately lead away from the essence of Islamic terrorism.

The first question:

“Is ISIS driven essentially by theological and religious motivations? Or pragmatic political considerations?”

IS is driven by testosterone, by social tensions, lack of opportunities for young men because of overpopulation and resulting unemployment, by media propaganda, depicting a perfect clean world where affluence and a luxurious life can be easily achieved, by alienation in an artificial technical world which many don’t understand and which has led us far away from our primal needs.

Theological and religious motivations (what is the difference between the two?) are just a tool to enhance and smoothen the flow of terrorism applicants and sugarcoat the personal motivations of the participants. Pragmatic political considerations are of course guiding the organizers, sponsors, enablers of the terror groups (USA, Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, some other Gulf monarchies and NATO members).

The second question:

“Is ISIS essentially a medieval movement in character — or a “modern” movement?”

Humans have biologically not changed much since medieval times, society has changed, technology has advanced. IS members, like their forbearers in medieval times (Vikings, Huns, Mongols, later marauding mercenary armies) are driven by biological urges, but they use modern technology.

The third question:

“Is the movement durable?”

IS was just one of many terror groups who were invented and funded by the already mentioned agitators and meddlers in the Middle East (see the list above). In an evolutionary process IS by natural selection turned out to be the most effective group. It has developed its own dynamic but is still depending on the mentioned sponsors and enablers. Without the steady flow of supplies and apprentices from Turkey, without the trade of oil and antiquities via Turkey, without the amplification of their propaganda via Western media and internet companies, IS would be finished in a few month.

If the USA would start a bombing campaign in earnest, IS would be finished in a few weeks. Where should they hide in these barren lands?

The author doesn’t forget to use a classical propaganda trick: “…. in Syria feeding off the tragic breakdown of order under Assad’s gross and brutal mishandling of early Arab Spring rioting.” How does Mr. Fuller know? Was he there? Or did he just read Western propaganda and accept it as truth?

Did he consider the high death toll of Syrian police in the early days of the riots? (much higher that the casualties of the demonstrators). Does he know that Syrian policemen didn’t wear weapons and when they finally were equipped with weapons as the unrest progressed they had to account for every bullet they fired.

The remaining text of the article is a compendium of commonplaces, some right, some wrong, but all detached from the reality of IS. It is not worth the effort to take this text apart sentence by sentence.

To sum it up: This is typical smokescreen journalism and unworthy to be published on this website.

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It is easier to write a comment in response to an article than to formulate an article with a logical and easily understandable structure. It is often easier to document, analyze, and conclude from an outside observation post. Mr. Fullers CIA years have seemingly shaped his thinking and despite a honest intention to present a rational and fact based view he seems to be trapped by deep-rooted presumptions. Presumptions which are unfounded but deeply engraved in the brain by lifelong indoctrination.

Most of us suffer from such presumptions, which cloud our judgement and hinder us to find appropriate answers to the many challenges of life.

The article mentions: “…the rollback of sectarianism as a driving force in the region…”

Western intelligence agencies have supported Islamic radicals since Nasser’s days. Said Ramadan was likely a CIA agent. Huma Abedin, Arif Alikhan, Mohammed Elibiary, Rashad Hussain and other members of the US administration were linked to the Muslim Brotherhood. What about Charlie Wilson’s war? Turkeys AKP is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. What about the funding of a broad range of Islamic terror groups by Saudi Arabia and Qatar via Kuwaiti banks? What about the support of IS by Turkeys MIT, the support of Jabhat al-Nusra by Israel and Turkey, the unhindered transfer of fighters and equipment through Turkey and the sale of looted industrial machinery, antiquities, and oil from Syria via Turkey?

Most Iraqis believe that IS basically = US, and there are countless indications for that beyond the farcical bombing campaign of the so called “coalition,” which stirs up a lot of desert dust but achieves nothing except an obfuscation of the fact that IS is a creation of the West.

Sectarianism was latent in the Middle East but it was rekindled by the neocolonial powers and it blossomed due to constant funding from Gulf potentates (US allies) and Western agencies.

No rollback of sectarianism is necessary, just stopping funding and stopping arms sales to the region would do the trick.

The article mentions: “…freeing up of energy/pipeline options across Asia.”

Is that desirable, when the menace of global warming would dictate a reduction of fossil fuel use?

The article mentions: “Assad obviously is far more likely to listen to tested allies than heed the plans of enemies dedicated to his overthrow.”

Syria’s President Assad will listen to any well meant advise, but he is perfectly capable of leading the country by his own judgement. He managed the precarious situation caused by the various invasions and incursion from Turkey, Jordan, and Israel (via the Golan Heights) remarkably well and he always had and probably still has the support of the majority of Syria’s population.

His one big mistake was the introduction of Western inspired economic reforms at the start of his tenure, thereby increasing inequality and hardship for the rural population (especially in drought-stricken Daraa). His vision of a “free-market economy” has long since been abandoned by the necessity to establish a war-economy.

The article mentions: “U.S. and Turkey stepped up support to nominally moderate and secular armed opposition.”

Was there ever a moderate opposition? The FSA brigades were right from the start either ruthless criminal gangs, marauding mercenaries, or fanatic Islamists.

The article mentions: “As ruthless as Assad had been in crushing domestic opposition…”

Wow! How does Mr. Fuller know? Was he there? Or did he just read Western propaganda and accept it as truth?

Did he consider the high death toll of Syrian police in the early days of the riots? (much higher that the casualties of the demonstrators). Does he know that Syrian policemen didn’t wear weapons and when they finally were equipped with weapons as the unrest progressed they had to account for every bullet they fired?
The remaining parts of the article are less controversial but there is no mentioning of the following important factors:

Global warming, droughts, scarcity of water, desertification in most of the Middle East and northern Africa.
Overpopulation, weakening of traditional social structures (tribe, clan, family).

Cultural incompatibilities, brought to the fore by globalization and tourism.

Which all means: Even without Western-instigated wars there will be tension, volatility, social strife. There will be unrest (bread protests), mass migration, revolutions.

Don’t the rich countries have a responsibility to help and share their wealth which they gathered by exploiting the resources of the world? Advise alone — even well meant — will not be welcomed as long as the USA consumes twice as much energy and resources per capita as Europe and eight times as much as the rest of the world.

What about leading by example?

Including such considerations in the article (or at least mentioning them) would certainly have enhanced it.

The article concludes: “Washington does not have the luxury of playing dog in the manger in “managing” the Middle East, especially after two decades or more of massive and destructive policy failure on virtually all fronts.”

This formulation implies “good faith,” fairness, altruism as factors of US politics, it somehow smells of US superiority (exceptionalism), and The White Man’s Burden. Maybe I’m biased and overcritical and it wasn’t meant this way. Maybe it wasn’t suggested that the USA tried hard to benefit humanity but failed for whatever reason.

US politics didn’t fail the weapons producers (MIC) and big oil.

I cant go into details in the short form of a comment but main assumptions in this article cannot be left unchallenged and I’m ready to discuss open questions.

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This is an excellent article, with not a single line being objectionable. A few minor notions as a humble contribution:

When Lewis writes: “…replace Bashar al-Assad with a figure who could rally moderate Syrians to restore a stable government…”, one has to ask, who this figure would be and how he or she would be chosen.

When in 1979 Ayatollah Khomeini returned to Teheran millions of Iranians were on the street to enthusiastically welcome him. When Jean Bertrand Aristide returned to Haiti in 2011, the streets of Port-au-Prince were full and people were climbing up trees, walls, and rooftops to get a glimpse of him. People were jogging along his motorcade, dancing and singing. When in 2002 Hugo Chavez returned to Caracas after the failed coup, thousands celebrated in front of the Miraflores palace, singing the national anthem and setting off firecrackers.

How many Syrians would pour into the streets of Damascus to welcome a Western installed puppet?

Lewis writes: “There are those who see Syria as a quagmire for Putin, a kind of matched pair to our own folly in Iraq.” One has to wonder, if the Iraq invasion is indeed regarded a folly by the US establishment. Bush, Rumsfeld, Powell, Cheney don’t feel remorse and would do it again for sure. For Haliburton, General Dynamics, Lockheed, Northrop, and other military contractors the Iraq war was a rousing success.

One point could maybe have been emphasized more clearly: The USA has no business there and should leave Syrians alone. 1,200 military bases around the word should be enough to secure all strategic interests of the exceptional nation (to question these strategic interest, which center around resource exploitation, admittedly exceeds the scope of this article).

The author writes: “Or the West could cooperate with Russia and Iran in organizing a power-sharing “unity government” in Damascus that would allow Assad to remain in office for the time being while adopting democratic reforms.”

The White Mans Burden again.

It may not be in the imperial lexicon, but the article could have been crowned with the suggestion of the most logical, simplest, and cheapest solution:

Ami go home!

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Consortiumnews is one of the few bright spots in the pitch-black US media scene and it deserves support and encouragement. One has nevertheless to be aware that the organizers and contributors of this media project are fully immersed into the US way of thinking and despite their genuine efforts to think out (break out) of the box ever so often unintentionally purport US propaganda lines.

Comments by people who hail from other cultures and watch things from the distance may help to remedy this.