Turkish collaboration with IS

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY IN THE CITY OF NEW YORK

INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF HUMAN RIGHTS

Research Paper: IS-Turkey Links

By David L. Phillips

Introduction

Is Turkey collaborating with IS (Islamic State)? Allegations range from military cooperation and weapons transfers to logistical support, financial assistance, and the provision of medical services. It is also alleged that Turkey turned a blind eye to IS attacks against Kobani.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu strongly deny complicity with IS. Erdogan visited the Council on Foreign Relations on September 22, 2014. He criticized “smear campaigns [and]attempts to distort perception about us.” Erdogan decried, “A systematic attack on Turkey’s international reputation,” complaining that “Turkey has been subject to very unjust and ill-intentioned news items from media organizations.” Erdogan posited: “My request from our friends in the United States is to make your assessment about Turkey by basing your information on objective sources.”

Columbia University’s Program on Peace-building and Rights assigned a team of researchers in the USA, Europe, and Turkey to examine Turkish and international media, assessing the credibility of allegations. This report draws on a variety of international sources — The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Guardian, The Daily Mail, BBC, Sky News, as well as Turkish sources, CNN Turk, Hurriyet Daily News, Taraf, Cumhuriyet, and Radikal among others.

Allegations

Turkey Provides Military Equipment to IS

• An IS commander told The Washington Post on August 12, 2014: “Most of the fighters who joined us in the beginning of the war came via Turkey, and so did our equipment and supplies.”

• Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, head of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), produced a statement from the Adana Office of the Prosecutor on October 14, 2014 maintaining that Turkey supplied weapons to terror groups. He alsoproduced interview transcripts from truck drivers who delivered weapons to the groups. According to Kiliçdaroglu, the Turkish government claims the trucks were for humanitarian aid to the Turkmen, but the Turkmen said no humanitarian aid was delivered.

• According to CHP Vice President Bulent Tezcan, three trucks were stoppedin Adana for inspection on January 19, 2014. The trucks were loaded with weapons in Esenboga Airport in Ankara. The drivers drove the trucks to the border, where a MIT agent was supposed to take over and drive the trucks to Syria to deliver materials to IS and groups in Syria. This happened many times. When the trucks were stopped, MIT agents tried to keep the inspectors from looking inside the crates. The inspectors found rockets, arms, and ammunitions.

• Cumhuriyet reports that Fuat Avni, a preeminent Twitter user who reported on the December 17th corruption probe, that audio tapes confirm that Turkey provided financial and military aid to terrorist groups associated with Al Qaeda on October 12, 2014. On the tapes, Erdogan pressured the Turkish Armed Forces to go to war with Syria. Erdogan demanded that Hakan Fidan, the head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Agency (MIT), come up with a justification for attacking Syria.

• Hakan Fidan told Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, Yasar Guler, a senior defense official, and Feridun Sinirlioglu, a senior foreign affairs official: “If need be, I’ll send 4 men into Syria. I’ll formulate a reason to go to war by shooting 8 rockets into Turkey; I’ll have them attack the Tomb of Suleiman Shah.”

• Documents surfaced on September 19th, 2014 showing that the Saudi Emir Bender Bin Sultan financed the transportation of arms to IS through Turkey. A flight leaving Germany dropped off arms in the Etimesgut airport in Turkey, which was then split into three containers, two of which were given to IS and one to Gaza.

Turkey Provided Transport and Logistical Assistance to IS Fighters

• According to Radikal on June 13, 2014, Interior Minister Muammar Guler signed a directive: “According to our regional gains, we will help al-Nusra militants against the branch of PKK terrorist organization, the PYD, within our borders…Hatay is a strategic location for the mujahideen crossing from within our borders to Syria. Logistical support for Islamist groups will be increased, and their training, hospital care, and safe passage will mostly take place in Hatay…MIT and the Religious Affairs Directorate will coordinate the placement of fighters in public accommodations.” 

• The Daily Mail reported on August 25, 2014 that many foreign militants joined IS in Syria and Iraq after traveling through Turkey, but Turkey did not try to stop them. This article describes how foreign militants, especially from the UK, go to Syria and Iraq through the Turkish border. They call the border the “Gateway to Jihad.” Turkish army soldiers either turn a blind eye and let them pass, or the jihadists pay the border guards as little as $10 to facilitate their crossing.

• Britain’s Sky News obtained documents showing that the Turkish government has stamped passports of foreign militants seeking to cross the Turkey border into Syria to join IS.

• The BBC interviewed villagers, who claim that buses travel at night, carrying jihadists to fight Kurdish forces in Syria and Iraq, not the Syrian Armed Forces.

• A senior Egyptian official indicated on October 9, 2014 that Turkish intelligence is passing satellite imagery and other data to IS.

Turkey Provided Training to IS Fighters

• CNN Turk reported on July 29, 2014 that in the heart of Istanbul, places like Duzce and Adapazari, have become gathering spots for terrorists. There are religious orders where IS militants are trained. Some of these training videos are posted on the Turkish IS propaganda website takvahaber.net. According to CNN Turk, Turkish security forces could have stopped these developments if they had wanted to.

• Turks who joined an affiliate of IS were recorded at a public gathering in Istanbul, which took place on July 28, 2014.

• A video shows an IS affiliate holding a prayer/gathering in Omerli, a district of Istanbul. In response to the video, CHP Vice President, MP Tanrikulu submitted parliamentary questions to the Minister of the Interior, Efkan Ala, asking questions such as, “Is it true that a camp or camps have been allocated to an affiliate of IS in Istanbul? What is this affiliate? Who is it made up of? Is the rumor true that the same area allocated for the camp is also used for military exercises?”

• Kemal Kiliçdaroglu warned the AKP government not to provide money and training to terror groups on October 14, 2014. He said, “It isn’t right for armed groups to be trained on Turkish soil. You bring foreign fighters to Turkey, put money in their pockets, guns in their hands, and you ask them to kill Muslims in Syria. We told them to stop helping IS. Ahmet Davutoglu asked us to show proof. Everyone knows that they’re helping IS.” (See HEREand HERE.)

• According to Jordanian intelligence, Turkey trained IS militants for special operations.

Turkey Offers Medical Care to IS Fighters

• An IS commander told the Washington Post on August 12, 2014, “We used to have some fighters — even high-level members of the Islamic State — getting treated in Turkish hospitals.”

• Taraf reported on October 12, 2014 that Dengir Mir Mehmet Fırat, a founder of the AKP, said that Turkey supported terrorist groups and still supports them and treats them in hospitals. “In order to weaken the developments in Rojova (Syrian Kurdistan), the government gave concessions and arms to extreme religious groups…the government was helping the wounded. The Minister of Health said something such as, it’s a human obligation to care for the IS wounded.”

• According to Taraf, Ahmet El H, one of the top commanders at IS and Al Baghdadi’s right hand man, was treated at a hospital in Sanliurfa, Turkey, along with other IS militants. The Turkish state paid for their treatment. According to Taraf’s sources, IS militants are being treated in hospitals all across southeastern Turkey. More and more militants have been coming in to be treated since the start of airstrikes in August. To be more specific, eight IS militants were transported through the Sanliurfa border crossing; these are their names: “Mustafa A., Yusuf El R., Mustafa H., Halil El M., Muhammet El H., Ahmet El S., Hasan H., [and] Salim El D.”

Turkey Supports IS Financially Through Purchase of Oil

• On September 13, 2014, The New York Times reported on the Obama administration’s efforts to pressure Turkey to crack down on IS extensive sales network for oil. James Phillips, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, argues that Turkey has not fully cracked down on IS’s sales network because it benefits from a lower price for oil, and that there might even be Turks and government officials who benefit from the trade.

• Fehim Taştekin wrote in Radikal on September 13, 2014 about illegal pipelines transporting oil from Syria to nearby border towns in Turkey. The oil is sold for as little as 1.25 liras per liter. Taştekin indicated that many of these illegal pipelines were dismantled after operating for 3 years, once his article was published.

• According to Diken and OdaTV, David Cohen, a Justice Department official,says that there are Turkish individuals acting as middlemen to help sell IS’soil through Turkey.

• On October 14, 2014, a German Parliamentarian from the Green Partyaccused Turkey of allowing the transportation of arms to IS over its territory, as well as the sale of oil.

Turkey Assists IS Recruitment

• Kemal Kiliçdaroğlu claimed on October 14, 2014 that IS offices in Istanbul and Gaziantep are used to recruit fighters. On October 10, 2014, the mufti of Konya said that 100 people from Konya joined IS 4 days ago. (See HEREand HERE.)

• OdaTV reports that Takva Haber serves as a propaganda outlet for IS to recruit Turkish-speaking individuals in Turkey and Germany. The address where this propaganda website is registered corresponds to the address of a school called Irfan Koleji, which was established by Ilim Yayma Vakfi, a foundation that was created by Erdogan and Davutoglu, among others. It is thus claimed that the propaganda site is operated from the school of the foundation started by AKP members.

• Minister of Sports, Suat Kilic, an AKP member, visited Salafi jihadists who are IS supporters in Germany. The group is known for reaching out to supporters via free Quran distributions and raising funds to sponsor suicide attacks in Syria and Iraq by raising money.

• OdaTV released a video allegedly showing IS militants riding a bus in Istanbul.

Turkish Forces Are Fighting Alongside IS

• On October 7, 2014, IBDA-C, a militant Islamic organization in Turkey, pledged support to IS. A Turkish friend who is a commander in IS suggests that Turkey is “involved in all of this” and that “10,000 IS members will come to Turkey.” A Huda-Par member at the meeting claims that officials criticize IS but in fact sympathize with the group (Huda-Par, the “Free Cause Party”, is a Kurdish Sunni fundamentalist political party). BBP member claims that National Action Party (MHP) officials are close to embracing IS. In the meeting, it is asserted that IS militants come to Turkey frequently to rest, as though they are taking a break from military service. They claim that Turkey will experience an Islamic revolution, and Turks should be ready for jihad. (See HERE and HERE.)

• Seymour Hersh maintains in the London Review of Books that IS conducted sarin attacks in Syria, and that Turkey was informed. “For months there had been acute concern among senior military leaders and the intelligence community about the role in the war of Syria’s neighbors, especially Turkey. Prime Minister Recep Erdogan was known to be supporting the al-Nusra Front, a jihadist faction among the rebel opposition, as well as other Islamist rebel groups. ‘We knew there were some in the Turkish government,’ a former senior US intelligence official, who has access to current intelligence, told me, ‘who believed they could get Assad’s nuts in a vice by dabbling with a sarin attack inside Syria – and forcing Obama to make good on his red line threat.”

• On September 20, 2014, Demir Celik, a Member of Parliament with the people’s democratic party (HDP) claimed that Turkish Special Forces fight with IS.

Turkey Helped IS in Battle for Kobane

• Anwar Moslem, Mayor of Kobane, said on September 19, 2014: “Based on the intelligence we got two days before the breakout of the current war, trains full of forces and ammunition, which were passing by north of Kobane, had an-hour-and-ten-to-twenty-minute-long stops in these villages: Salib Qaran, Gire Sor, Moshrefat Ezzo. There are evidences, witnesses, and videos about this. Why is IS strong only in Kobane’s east? Why is it not strong either in its south or west? Since these trains stopped in villages located in the east of Kobane, we guess they had brought ammunition and additional force for the IS.” In the second article on September 30, 2014, a CHP delegation visited Kobane, where locals claimed that everything from the clothes IS militants wear to their guns comes from Turkey. (See HERE and HERE.)

• Released by Nuhaber, a video shows Turkish military convoys carrying tanks and ammunition moving freely under IS flags in the Cerablus region and Karkamis border crossing (September 25, 2014). There are writings in Turkish on the trucks.

• Salih Muslim, PYD head, claims that 120 militants crossed into Syria from Turkey between October 20th and 24th, 2014.

• According to an op-ed written by a YPG commander in The New York Times on October 29, 2014, Turkey allows IS militants and their equipment to pass freely over the border.

• Diken reported, “IS fighters crossed the border from Turkey into Syria, over the Turkish train tracks that delineate the border, in full view of Turkish soldiers. They were met there by PYD fighters and stopped.”

• A Kurdish commander in Kobani claims that IS militants have Turkish entry stamps on their passports.

• Kurds trying to join the battle in Kobani are turned away by Turkish police at the Turkey-Syrian border.

• OdaTV released a photograph of a Turkish soldier befriending IS militants.

Turkey and IS Share a Worldview

• RT reports on Vice President Joe Biden’s remarks detailing Turkish support to IS.

• According to the Hurriyet Daily News on September 26, 2014, “The feelings of the AKP’s heavyweights are not limited to Ankara. I was shocked to hear words of admiration for IS from some high-level civil servants even in Şanliurfa. ‘They are like us, fighting against seven great powers in the War of Independence,’ one said.” “Rather than the [Kurdistan Workers’ Party] PKK on the other side, I would rather have IS as a neighbor,” said another.”

• Cengiz Candar, a well-respected Turkish journalist, maintained that MIT helped “midwife” the Islamic state in Iraq and Syria, as well as other Jihadi groups.

• An AKP council member posted on his Facebook page: “Thankfully IS exists… May you never run out of ammunition…”

• A Turkish Social Security Institution supervisor uses the IS logo in internal correspondences.

• Bilal Erdogan and Turkish officials meet alleged IS fighters.

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Update by editor:

Cumhuriyet Editor-in-Chief Can Dundar and the daily’s Ankara Bureau Chief Erdem Gul were arrested Nov. 26 on charges of espionage and being a member of an armed terrorist organization, based on reports in Cumhuriyet regarding Syrian-bound trucks sent by MIT (National Intelligence Agency).

The armed organization mentioned by the prosecutors refers to FETO (Fethullahist Terrorist Organization), a term used by prosecutors to define the followers of Fethullah Gulen, a US-based Islamic scholar.

Footage released by Cumhuriyet on May 29 reportedly showed gendarmerie and police officers opening crates on the back of trucks which contained what the daily described as weapons and ammunition sent to Syria by MIT in January 2014.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan filed an individual criminal complaint against Dundar and Cumhuriyet on June 2, claiming that the story “included some footage and information that are not factual” while saying the person “who wrote the story will pay a heavy price.”

The criminal complaint, which was filed to the Ankara Chief Prosecutor’s Office to be sent to Istanbul where Cumhuriyet is based, argued that the newspaper “participated in the actions” of the US-based Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen, Erdogan’s erstwhile ally, whose followers are accused of infiltrating the police, the judiciary and the bureaucracy.

“By publishing fabricated footage and information that were leaked to him by the parallel organization, [Dundar] participated in the actions of the organization’s members who searched the trucks and plotted with fabricated evidence to create a perception … that the Republic of Turkey as helping terrorist organizations,” the complaint said.

Erdogan said on November 24 that whether or not the trucks carried weapons was irrelevant and claimed that the trucks were set to deliver humanitarian aid to Bayirbucak Turkmens.

Who will stop Erdogan? Update 2

Captain Konstantin Murakhtin, the surviving co-pilot of the downed SU-24, has told journalists, that the crew “knew the region like the back of their hand,” that they did not fly over Turkish air space, and that there were no visual or radio warnings from Turkey. He also said: “I want to stay here, I want payback for my commander.”

Turkey insists, that the Russian crew was warned 10 times in the space of five minutes before action was taken but also says that the plane was just 17 seconds in Turkish territory. This is a clear contradiction.

Captain Murakhtin: ”All our mission flight was in my personal full control until the explosion of the missile. There were no warnings either via radio communication or optically. There were no contacts at all. That’s why we flew heading combat course as per normal.”

Acording to Syrian sources Russian planes conducted massive attacks on the positions of Turkmens in the region where the Russian Su-24 was brought down. The source reported that most likely nothing remains of the militants who killed the pilot and shot down the Russian MI-8 helicopter.

New Information suggest that the Turkish air force is not putting their fighters in the air after the majority of them were lit up by Russian missile radar (S-300 or possibly S-400). According to a statement of the Russian Ministry of Defense, Turkey is afraid that their planes would be destroyed when approaching the border.

The Russian forces hope that they are now able to unhindered destroy Islamic fighter camps in the border territory and annihilate retreating militants and fuel trucks which are moving towards Turkey.

Russia considers an increase of the air group in Syria to 70 aircrafts. Most air raids will be carried out under the cover of fighter planes SU-27 and SU-30CM.

Russia hit a parking lot for trucks waiting to go through Bab al-Salam, a major rebel-controlled border crossing between Turkey and Syria. This is one of Russia’s closest air strikes to Turkish soil, targeting a vital corridor into rebel-held Syria and a lifeline for Islamic terror groups.

Videos have emerged of burning trucks and panicked onlookers in the aftermath of Russian air strikes in Azaz near the Turkish border. Turkish media claims, that the airstrikes killed at least seven of the truck drivers. An IHH (Humanitarian Relief Foundation) Twitter account notes that the organization had a team in Azaz to assist and extinguish the fires.

IHH has been linked to al-Qaeda and has been repeatedly caught in illegal activities. In 1997 a search of the organization’s Istanbul office yielded the discovery of firearms, explosives, and bomb-making instructions.

In 2014 an IHH truck was stopped at the Syrian border and discovered to be loaded with weapons. Turkish police raided an IHH office as part of a crackdown against individuals with links to al-Qaeda. Most recently, IHH has been investigated in Bosnia-Herzegovina for exporting weapons to Syria.

Erdogan did not receive the expected support from NATO. Turkey has acknowledged that if the Russian plane even violated the border of Turkey, this was for only for 17 seconds, which means that the Turkish Air Force, on purely physical grounds, could not have reacted to it if the provocation was not prepared in advance. This figure of 17 seconds appears in NATO reports.

Members of NATO have been ambiguously treating Erdogan’s action. At present it is difficult to judge how the situation will develop. While it is obvious that Erdogan is attempting to back off, it is already too late, as Vladimir Putin gave to understand at a meeting with the king of Jordan.

According to an official Russian statement:

“Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reminded his counterpart Mevlut Cavusogluto about Turkey’s involvement in IS’ illegal trade in oil, which is transported via the area where the Russian plane was shot down, and about the terrorist infrastructure, arms and munitions depots and control centers that are also located there.”

Retired French General Dominique Trinquand reaffirmed Lavrovs position, saying that “Turkey is either not fighting IS at all or very little, and does not interfere with different types of smuggling that takes place on its border, be it oil, phosphate, cotton, or people”.

Investigations by independent journalists about IS oil trade have repeatedly led to one name: Bilal Erdogan, the son of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Wikipedia:

After graduating from Kartal Imam Hatip High School in 1999, Bilal Erdogan moved to the US for undergraduate education. He earned a Masters Degree in the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University in 2004. After graduation, he served in the World Bank as intern. He returned to Turkey in 2006 and started a business career. Bilal Erdogan is one of the three equal shareholders of BMZ Group Denizcilik ve Insaat Sanayi Anonim Sirketi, a marine transportation corporation.

BMZ Ltd is in fact a family business, and shares are hold by President Erdogan’s close relatives who in this context also misused public funds and took illicit loans from Turkish banks.”

The Turkish government buys oil which is being produced from Iraqi and Syrian oil wells that IS has seized. Bilal Erdogan’s maritime company owns special wharfs in the ports Ceyhan (southern Turkey) and Beirut (Lebanon) that are transporting smuggled IS crude oil in tankers to Israel, Europe, and Japan.

This is not the only family connection of the Turkish president to terrorism. His daughter Sumeyye Erdogan runs a secret hospital camp near the Syrian border where Turkish army trucks daily bring in scores of wounded IS fighters to be patched up and sent back to Syria, according to the testimony of a nurse who was recruited to work there until it was discovered that she was a member of the Alawite branch of Islam.

Since September Russia has tried to get additional legal support for its air campaign in Syria from the UN Security Council. The USA tried to sabotage this diplomatic move and could it delay for some weeks but in the wake of the IS terror attacks in Paris Russia was able to obtain UN backing with the help of France.

The USA was not in the position to veto this resolution, backed by its ally France, but US ambassador Samantha Power, a diehard neocon, stood away from the vote. The passing of this anti-terror resolution was more than Samantha Power could bear.

The resolution not only approves Russia’s military campaign (“using all necessary means”), but it makes clear that Russia is fully entitled to extend the air campaign to “all other individuals, groups, undertakings, and entities associated with Al-Qaeda, and other terrorist groups”. Jabhat al-Nusra is explicitly mentioned.

United Nation Security Council resolution 2249 (2015)

“Reaffirming its resolutions 1267 (1999), 1368 (2001), 1373 (2001), 1618 (2005), 1624 (2005), 2083 (2012), 2129 (2013), 2133 (2014), 2161 (2014), 2170 (2014), 2178 (2014), 2195 (2014), 2199 (2015) and 2214 (2015), and its relevant presidential statements,

“Reaffirming the principles and purposes of the Charter of the United Nations,

“Reaffirming its respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity, independence and unity of all States in accordance with purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter,

“Reaffirming that terrorism in all forms and manifestations constitutes one of the most serious threats to international peace and security and that any acts of terrorism are criminal and unjustifiable regardless of their motivations, whenever and by whomsoever committed,

“Determining that, by its violent extremist ideology, its terrorist acts, its continued gross systematic and widespread attacks directed against civilians, abuses of human rights and violations of international humanitarian law, including those driven on religious or ethnic ground, its eradication of cultural heritage and trafficking of cultural property, but also its control over significant parts and natural resources across Iraq and Syria and its recruitment and training of foreign terrorist fighters whose threat affects all regions and Member States, even those far from conflict zones, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as Da’esh), constitutes a global and unprecedented threat to international peace and security,

“Recalling that the Al-Nusrah Front (ANF) and all other individuals, groups, undertakings and entities associated with Al-Qaida also constitute a threat to international peace and security,

“Determined to combat by all means this unprecedented threat to international peace and security,

“Noting the letters dated 25 June 2014 and 20 September 2014 from the Iraqi authorities which state that Da’esh has established a safe haven outside Iraq’s borders that is a direct threat to the security of the Iraqi people and territory,

“Reaffirming that Member States must ensure that any measures taken to combat terrorism comply with all their obligations under international law, in particular international human rights, refugee and humanitarian law;

“Reiterating that the situation will continue to deteriorate further in the absence of a political solution to the Syria conflict and emphasizing the need to implement the Geneva communiqué of 30 June 2012 endorsed as Annex II of its resolution 2118 (2013), the joint statement on the outcome of the multilateral talks on Syria in Vienna of 30 October 2015 and the statement of the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) of 14 November 2015,

“1.   Unequivocally condemns in the strongest terms the horrifying terrorist attacks perpetrated by ISIL also known as Da’esh which took place on 26 June 2015 in Sousse, on 10 October 2015 in Ankara, on 31 October 2015 over Sinaï, on 12 November 2015 in Beirut and on 13 November 2015 in Paris, and all other attacks perpetrated by ISIL also known as Da’esh, including hostage-taking and killing, and notes it has the capability and intention to carry out further attacks and regards all such acts of terrorism as a threat to peace and security;

“2.   Expresses its deepest sympathy and condolences to the victims and their families and to the people and Governments of Tunisia, Turkey, Russian Federation, Lebanon and France, and to all Governments whose citizens were targeted in the above mentioned attacks and all other victims of terrorism;

“3.      Condemns also in the strongest terms the continued gross, systematic and widespread abuses of human rights and violations of humanitarian law, as well as barbaric acts of destruction and looting of cultural heritage carried out by ISIL also known as Da’esh;

“4.   Reaffirms that those responsible for committing or otherwise responsible for terrorist acts, violations of international humanitarian law or violations or abuses of human rights must be held accountable;

“5.   Calls upon Member States that have the capacity to do so to take all necessary measures, in compliance with international law, in particular with the United Nations Charter, as well as international human rights, refugee and humanitarian law, on the territory under the control of ISIL also known as Da’esh, in Syria and Iraq, to redouble and coordinate their efforts to prevent and suppress terrorist acts committed specifically by ISIL also known as Da’esh as well as ANF, and all other individuals, groups, undertakings, and entities associated with Al-Qaida, and other terrorist groups, as designated by the United Nations Security Council, and as may further be agreed by the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) and endorsed by the UN Security Council, pursuant to the statement of the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) of 14 November, and to eradicate the safe haven they have established over significant parts of Iraq and Syria;

“6.   Urges Member States to intensify their efforts to stem the flow of foreign terrorist fighters to Iraq and Syria and to prevent and suppress the financing of terrorism, and urges all Members States to continue to fully implement the above-mentioned resolutions;

“7.   Expresses its intention to swiftly update the 1267 committee sanctions list in order to better reflect the threat posed by ISIL also known as Da’esh;

“8.  Decides to remain seized of the matter.

Who will stop Erdogan? Update

The second pilot from the Russian SU-24 jet is alive and has been rescued by Russian forces in an overnight special operation. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu: “The operation was successful. The pilot is already at our base. He is alive and well. I want to thank all our guys, who worked at great risk throughout the night.”

President Vladimir Putin has ordered the surviving pilot and his rescuers to be decorated for bravery. Putin: “He has been rescued, I understand he us already back at the base, at the aerodrome. He and all those who participated in this operation, including the rescue mission, will receive state awards. The defense ministry proposed this.”

The airplane’s other pilot, who died as he was fired at from the ground, will posthumously be given Russia’s highest award for valor, the Hero of Russia medal.

General staff spokesman, Lt. Gen. Sergei Rudskoi, told that Turkmen rebels in Syria fired on a Russian helicopter that was searching for the two pilots of the SU-24.

The shooting killed one crew member on the Mi-8 helicopter and forced it to land in neutral territory.

The rest of the crew was evacuated. Rudskoi also said that Russian radar data showed that Turkish warplanes had violated Syrian airspace in the course of shooting down the Russian plane.

In Syria the Turkmen, who are linguistically and ethnically Turkish, live alongside Arabs and Kurds and have mostly stayed neutral. They historically objected to the Arab nationalism of the Syrian Baath party, which stressed assimilation to the Arab language and culture. In turn, the Syrian government has often regarded them as a fifth column working for Ankara.

Around a dozen Turkmen militias were created, trained, and equipped by Turkey. It is one of these, Alwiya al-Ashar, who’s members have killed the Russian pilot. They have been fighting alongside other rebel groups, including the al-Qaeda affiliates Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham, in the north of Latakia province.

Alwiya al-Ashar is linked to a Turkish and CIA-backed logistics supply program that funnels a near-constant stream of small arms, ammunition, and cash for salaries to rebel groups across northern Syria.

Many of the Turkmen brigade fighters are from Central Asia or Uighurs from China and the few real Syrian Turkmen are hardline Islamists, who cooperate with Jabhat al-Nusra, Ansar Al Shams, Jabhat Ansar Ad Din, and Ahrar al-Sham. Turkmen leader and spokesman Alparslan Celik is a Turkish citizen from Elazıg.

In recent days 1,700 civilians have fled over the border, because of an escalation of fighting between rebels and government troops in the area. Another 4,000 arrived at a refugee camp at Arfali, on the Syrian side of the border.

After the downing of its jet, Russia is sending the most hi-tech air defense system to Latakian air base in Syria to help bolster deterrence and protection of the Syrian air space, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu: “The S-400 anti-aircraft missile system will be deployed to the Hmeimim airbase.”

The S-400 first came into service in 2007. It is the next generation of the S-300, a particularly effective air defense missile system that Russia intends to sell to Iran and India.

With a maximum range of 400 kilometers, the two announced S-400 systems based at Latakias Hmeimim airbase would easily cover the area where Turkish jets shot down the SU-24, and would even threaten Turkish aircraft on the other side of the border.

NATO held an emergency meeting, but a NATO spokesman stressed that the meeting did not fall under Article 4, in which a member country discusses a threat to territorial integrity, political independence or security, and was purely for information.

NATO support for Turkey is not secured and even staunchly anti Russian members in Eastern Europe like Poland or the Baltic states are not likely to join a war for Turkey. They know that Erdogan caused the refugee crisis and that he supports IS.

There was certainly nothing accidental or unforeseen about the Turkish attack. The Turks fully intended to destroy a Russian aircraft and were waiting for an opportunity. Judging from the remarks of Western leader, it seems that Turkey and the USA want to force Russia to back away from bombing Islamic rebel positions near the Turkish border, acquiescing to a de facto no-fly zone.

It has not worked because Russia increased its air support for Syrian troops in Latakia’s northern countryside and also bombed rebel supply trucks in Azaz, an town north of Aleppo and just 2 kilometers away from the Turkish border. Azaz is on the western edge of Erdogan’s envisioned “safe zone.”

The USA and Turkey have conducted a series of airstrikes along the “Marea line.” Marea is 25 kilometers north from Aleppo, the distance to Azaz is only 20 kilometers. Azaz, Marea, Jarabulus, al-Bab, Manbij are all located inside Erdogan’s “safe zone” and al parties scramble to conquer this area because it is the most important supply corridor for the Islamic rebels.

The Syrian War is growing past the stage of a proxy war and is now heading towards a conventional confrontation between military powers. Few of the current world leaders have relevant experience during their lifetimes of either waging such wars, or of avoiding them.

There are five nuclear countries flying sorties over Syria; Russia, USA, Israel, France, Britain. World War III has maybe already started, but is not yet officially acknowledged. If the world leaders are not able to imagine the ignition of hydrogen bombs over their heads, the war will inevitably escalate with no one trying to dampen it down.

One possible development is that Russia will in future act much harder and uncompromising in Syria than it would seem “rational.” For Russia the question is whether or not it can sustain an alliance. For Russia the Syrian conflict is not just about Syria, it is about Belarus, Armenia, and other former Soviet republics.

It would be surprising if Putin will back off here and one wonders what the Turks will do when future  air strikes near the Turkish border are done with proper fighter escort? Will the Turks engage in a full-fledged air superiority battle at the Syrian frontier?

Also, will the Russians risk exposing valuable electronic countermeasure assets to enemy observation and assessment in anything less than a major war?

Realistic predictions, educated guesses, wishful thinking

I don’t want to fall into the trap and write: “Russia has to do this or avoid that.” Putin is not dependent on the advise of an unimportant humble blogger and he most likely has more insight and information than even the most enlightened and well connected commentators and analysts. But some possibilities nevertheless can be discussed and suggestions be made without appearing presumptuous and saucy.

This incident will not distract Russia from the prime mission, which is to safe Syria from destruction by Western proxy forces. But, the enablers and supporters of the proxy armies have to be hindered, weakened, neutralized, cordoned off. Erdogan, together with Netanyahu, is the most dangerous enemy of Syria, there has to be done something to stop this hazard.

Which means, that Putin finally needs to put the gloves off, otherwise Erdogan will make a fool out of him. A look into the CIA destabilization and assassination handbook is in order.

Russian media will inform the world public about Turkish support for terrorism. There is so much undeniable evidence that it is not difficult to make this case. Russia will publish a detailed documentation (The Terrorism Black Book) about Turkish support for terror organizations and distribute it globally. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has already began to address the issue when he said: “This [the downing of SU-24] is no surprise, considering the information we have about direct financial interest of some Turkish officials relating to the supply of oil products refined by plants controlled by IS.”

The huge Russian tourist stream to Turkey will disappear, Russian companies will be banned to conduct business in Turkey, Turkish exports to Russia and transfer of goods to Central Asia will stop, gas supplies will be disrupted due to “technical reasons” and “pipeline maintenance,” and various financial and government institutions will find themselves under sustained cyber attacks.

What about Russian NGOs swarming out all over Europe and funding, advising, coordinating anti-imperialist, anti-capitalist, anti-globalist grassroots movements? European resentments against Turkey are high (the siege of Vienna in 1529 and 1683 is still remembered), and Russia can forge an alliance with anti-EU and anti-immigration parties. These parties are constantly gaining popularity and have a rather positive view of Russia. Greek, Spanish, Italian, and Portuguese left wing parties need support too.

In Turkey maybe the Gulen movement can lend a helping hand. Remnants of secular Kemalism are possibly still in the army, waiting for a resurrection.

Religious bigotry, discrimination of minorities, misogyny, social inequality and injustice cause discontent and disloyalty in Turkish society, which can be exploited by outside players. The CIA has shown how to do it and has accumulated an impressive track record starting from the days of Allan Dulles (1953 Iranian coup, 1954 Guatemalan coup) till now.

Many Kurdish towns in southeastern Turkey have been devastated by fighting between Turkish special forces and the PKK (Silvan, Cizre). The Turkish troops have fired indiscriminately into civilian areas, killing women and children. Curfews and blockades have paralyzed the towns and destroyed the economy.

The PKK and their affiliate YPG/YPJ need help. Arms, logistic support, high tech intelligence would be appreciated. Iran could make peace with PJAK and appease the Kurds with increased autonomy, freeing Iranian Kurdish fighters to join the Syrian and Turkish brothers and sisters in their struggle against Erdogan.

It doesn’t seem impossible that the Barzani clan, who rules Iraqi Kurdistan and is friendly to Turkey, can one day be replaced in a popular uprising. Violent protests in Sulaimaniyah and other cities, with at least four killed and dozens of KDP offices torched, open interesting opportunities. Public discontent is high because of endemic corruption, a collapsing economy, and the pitiful display of Masoud Barzani, his near family members, and allied cronies unconstitutionally clinging to power and unashamed further enriching themselves.

Apart from such quiet operations Russia simply needs to wait till the chickens come home to roost.

The volatility in the worlds financial markets reminds of 2008. The 1.4 quadrillion US$ derivative time bomb is ticking. Sovereign gold reserves in the Manhattan (NY Fed) and London vaults are “over leveraged” (meaning stolen). China stock market turmoil, global bond market insecurity, commodity glut (oil, wheat, metals), everybody is rushing to make a killing before the house of cards finally crushes with nothing left than barter, scavenging, neighbors help, subsistence.

Don’t even talk about US deteriorating infrastructure, growing poverty (food stamps, homelessness, the (un)affordable care act), mind boggling amounts of private and public debt, increasing social tension (black lives (don’t) matter, mass shootings).

Russia’s economy will decline too and Russians will have to scale back and live more modest. But if Putin continues to dismantle the oligarchs fiefdoms and if he can overcome obstruction by the liberal faction under Sberbank CEO German (Herman) Gref, Russia will be stable while the Western consumer economies will descend into chaos.

This is the big game and compared with that the reckless and illegal shooting of the SU-24 is a minor annoyance. It is a tragedy for the killed soldier and a war crime because he was helpless and didn’t pose any threat. He and the killed member of the rescue helicopter crew will be remembered as heroes.