22.02.2017

In a weird way, Trump is our best hope

Disclaimer: This text is written by someone who profoundly dislikes US foreign policy, US militarism, and the American way of thinking, as represented by US mass media and Hollywood. If you believe, that the USA is a beacon of democracy, a role model for the world, a shining city on the hill, you should not read this text because it will only annoy you.
Proceed at your own peril.

As stated before, US President Donald Trump is not an intruder, not an “Manchurian Candidate,” not an outsider to challenge the US political establishment, he is himself a member of the establishment, a member of the ruling class of billionaires.

The turmoil which at the moment engulfs the White House, various US agencies, and the whole Washington DC political scene results from the fact, that President Trump belongs to the faction of the establishment, which prefers economic conquest to military conquest.

The faction which favors military conquest is represented in public by Robert Kagan, Victoria Nuland, John McCain, Lindsay Graham, John Brennan, James Clapper, Ashton Carter, Samantha Power, Susan Rice, Michael Morell, John Allen, Bill Kristol, the Clinton clan. These people are commonly known as Neocons or war hawks.

The main power bastion though of the Neocons and war hawks are the CIA and parts of the NSA and other security agencies, also parts of the military and the State Department. This is quite logical because the CIA and the other named entities depend on military conflict, interventions, wars to justify their existence and continued generous funding.
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The Matrix revealed: There are informal personal networks and cliques of high-ranking bureaucrats in all the mentioned organizations who can with some reason be called “deep state,” “permanent government,” or “shadow government.” Some legislators, retired officials, media people, and other persons who are influential or rich (George Soros) are also considered to be part of the deep state.

Though deep state and Neocons are not the same, they concur and correspond well enough to resist united against President Trump. Bureaucrats, challenged and threatened by Trumps attempt to install his confidants in crucial positions, provoked by his inimical and brash style, and instinctively resisting any kind of change, heartily join the resistance.

The goal is to either subdue Trump and bring him in line, paralyze the Trump administration, or remove him from office in one way or the other (impeachment, incapacitation, assassination).

What can the “deep state” do against President Trump?

The White House and other important buildings are bugged (with hidden microphones), every conversation is recorded, all communication lines are surveilled. CIA and NSA look for information bits which can be turned against Trump. Such information is then leaked to the press. Leaking has been made easier by President Obama, ordering the NSA a few days before he left office to distribute gathered evidence to all other intelligence agencies.

In January the CIA publicized via news channel CNN and BuzzFeed a 35-page dossier alleging that Russia has compromising information on Trump, including corruption and despicable personal conduct (sexual perversion). The dossier was compiled by Christopher Steele, an ex-MI6 agent and founder of Orbis Business Intelligence; it was available both to spy agencies and the press because its author had been shopping it around broadly for publication. In the meantime the dossier has been discredited.

In February National Security Advisor Michael Flynn had to resign after a report about five phone calls with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak was leaked to the press. In his resignation letter Flynn said he had given President Trump and Vice President Pence incomplete information about his contact with Kislyak. Before that newspapers like the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, the New York Times had voiced concerns about Flynn’s longstanding relationships with Russia.
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Other leaks included details from phone calls between President Trump with Mexican President Pena Nieto and French President Francois Hollande, a phone conversation between Trump and Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, where Trump complained about a “dumb” refugee swap deal and abruptly hang up, a call with Russian President Putin, where Trump was unsure about the 2010 New START arms-reduction treaty, had to ask aides, and then declared the treaty a bad deal.

There are leaked reports about animosities between senior counselor Stephen Bannon and White House chief of staff Reince Priebus, while various rumors are also spread about counselor Kellyanne Conway and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.

Trump tweeted: “The real story here is why are there so many illegal leaks coming out of Washington? Will these leaks be happening as I deal on N.Korea etc?

Former counterintelligence officer John Schindler warned in an op-ed, that the spy agencies withhold gathered intelligence from a White House which they do not trust and that vulnerabilities and wrong political decisions could result from that.

How can Trump defend himself?

Trump ally and New York billionaire Stephen Feinberg will be leading a sweeping review of US spy agencies. Feinberg has close ties to Trump’s chief strategist Stephen Bannon and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. Top intelligence officials fear that Feinberg is being groomed for a high position in one of the spy agencies, and that posts which are normally reserved for career officials will be filled with Trump confidants.

Trump handed over the full CIA Torture Report to courts. Obama had refused to give away the classified report.

Lt Gen Herbert Raymond McMaster has become the new National Security Advisor. McMaster is a military strategist who criticized the Vietnam War.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was handing out pink slips on the 7th floor of the Harry S. Truman building (the 7th floor was known to house a group of high-ranking officials who met every Wednesday afternoon to discuss politics in support of Hillary Clinton). Counselor of the State Department Kristie Kenney was among the dismissed. The White House warned State Department officials that they should quit if they disagree with the President.
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Trump keeps his private security guards, mainly provided by XMark LLC, which is owned by Eddie Deck, a former Marine and FBI agent. Gary Uher is vice president. Trump’s security director Keith Schiller, a retired New York City detective, began work last month as Trump’s director of Oval Office operations. Deck and Uher are said to be considered for Secret Service positions.

US Secret Service Director Joseph Clancy plans to step down on March 4. Clancy’s departure means that President Donald Trump will be able to select his own security chief. The Secret Service has almost 7,000 employees and is charged with protecting the president and his family as well as combating counterfeiting.

It is very clear that the Oval Office and every one of Trumps teams phone calls are being listened to. Though rumors try to implicate Reince Priebus and Katie Walsh with the leaking, electronic surveillance and bugs (hidden microphones) are the most likely sources of the leaks.

As the Trump team tries to avoid being spied on, the West Wing of the White House is still mostly empty. Steve Bannon and Jared Kushner have set up a new organization called the Strategic Initiatives Group, an internal White House think tank which in reality partly resides outside. 

Donald Trump spends his weekends in his Florida estate of Mar-a-Lago, first lady Melania Trump and son Barron stay in the New York Trump Tower and show no inclination to move into the White House. The small township of Bedminster, New Jersey, is preparing for the daunting prospect that the local Trump golf course will serve as a sort of northern White House for as many as 10 weekends a year.

This is very costly as the Secret Service has to protect all these sites in addition to the White House.
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It is not the first time a US President is at odds with the deep state.

When President Eisenhower made his “open skies” proposal he ordered to halt the U–2 spy missions. But the U-2 flights continued and an U–2 spy plane was shot down in 1960. Eisenhower had to lie and cover up the CIA disobedience.

When John F. Kennedy took office, the CIA had already planned the April 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion, and as the invasion failed, Kennedy felt the CIA had set him up. He intended to dismantle the CIA and assign its functions to other intelligence units. He reportedly vowed “to splinter the CIA in a thousand pieces and scatter it to the winds”. CIA head Allen Dulles resigned along with other senior CIA officers. But the CIA was too deeply involved in operations around the world to be disassembled and Kennedy was assassinated in 1963.

To make it clear again, this is not an article in favor of Donald Trump. How could one defend a billionaire who lives in his own skyscraper in New York and has vowed to slash environmental regulations, increase fossil fuel exploration, cut taxes for companies and the superrich, and privatize all public goods?

Yet, as he unyielding and stubborn takes on the deep state, political paralysis and chaos could ensue, the Presidency, the CIA, the whole Washington DC establishment could be damaged, unable to do their job, unable to protect the interests of the US empire and of the global class of 2,472 billionaires. 

This blog is mainly frequented by US citizens and they know what is going on. They know that a relentless class war is waged by the superrich who in their limitless greed continue to grab an ever increasing share of the national income at the expense of everybody else. Trumps cabinet of fellow billionaires, CEO’s, Goldman Sachs bankers, and Generals will surely side with the superrich, but Obama took their side too.  

US citizens know that infrastructure is crumbling and if it, as promised by Trump, is rebuilt by private companies, that they will have to pay a lot more for utilities than they do now, because the private companies are no charity organizations, they don’t aim to help the population, they want to make profit.

They know that privatized education is not cheap and only the wealthy will be able to get proper education, while children of the less fortunate will be taught in overcrowded classrooms by badly qualified and badly motivated teachers an abridged curriculum. This is the horror-vision of Betsy DeVos (sister of Blackwater founder Eric Prince btw.).
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They know that prices will go up while wages go down, health care will become even more unaffordable, retirement will become a distant dream. They also know that the Democratic Party is not an alternative, as Obama and Clinton proved conclusively. They know that they are screwed whoever wins and that a genuine champion of their cause never will have a chance to be elected.

The citizens of the word, brainwashed by Anglo-American culture and mass media, mostly don’t know all that. They still believe in an “American dream,” in unlimited opportunities, in “the land of the free and the home of the brave.”

The spectacle of a chaotic Trump presidency, mired in trench warfare with the CIA, will teach them a lesson and maybe incite and encourage them to stand up against their national billionaires class before it is too late and before the US system is also installed in their own country.

Even if the deep state prevails and eliminates Trump, the USA will be discredited, disgraced, the big lie will be exposed, while what is left of international good-will and sympathies will be lost. US leadership will not be accepted anymore, will be a thing of the past.

This is the big chance of the Trump presidency and the best we can hope for.

09.02.2017

Links February 2017

Feline news:
http://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/2017/02/what-cats-can-teach-us-about-how-live An really nice text and an absolute must read for every cat lover!
https://www.theparisreview.org/blog/2017/02/07/the-alley-cats-of-istanbul/
http://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/Bobcat-Still-Missing-From-DCs-National-Zoo-May-Be-in-Woodley-Park-or-Cleveland-Park-412269783.htmlShe has been found in the meantime and is back in the zoo. Goodby liberty.
http://www.treehugger.com/animals/ollie-jailbreaking-bobcat-lam-national-zoo.html
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/shortcuts/2017/jan/08/colour-changing-cats-warn-radioactive-waste-nuclear-plants-distant-descendants

Environmental news:http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mongolia-pollution-idUSKBN15M1KQ
http://news.sky.com/story/sick-whale-found-to-have-30-plastic-bags-blocking-its-stomach-10754077
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-38859851
http://www.nature.com/news/deadly-new-wheat-disease-threatens-europe-s-crops-1.21424
http://www.dw.com/en/earthworm-numbers-dwindle-threatening-soil-health/a-37325923
https://gizmodo.com/radiation-levels-are-soaring-inside-the-damaged-fukushi-1791958714
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/feb/02/armed-herders-elephant-kenya-wildlife-laikipia This will end in chaos with nothing than a wasteland left.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/sea-unworthy-a-personal-journey-into-the-pacific-garbage-patch-slide-show/
http://mahb.stanford.edu/blog/review-anthrozoology/
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/28/greenland-narsaq-uranium-mine-dividing-town Ruining what is left.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/uk-court-blocks-nigeria-spill-164822352.html
http://news.trust.org/item/20170127113908-241ue/
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/polar-bear-cubs-at-high-risk-from-toxic-industrial-chemicals-despite-bans/
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2063084/why-rich-breathe-easier-chinas-choking-smog Bring US jobs back from China, but leave the pollution there. Will that work?
air-puality-readings-chinahttp://www.independent.co.uk/environment/overfishing-species-extinction-african-food-crisis-threat-iucn-warning-niger-angola-mauritania-a7534901.html
http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2017/0114/Development-has-affected-7-percent-of-virgin-forests-since-2000-Study
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/16/chinas-booming-middle-class-drives-asias-toxic-e-waste-mountains In the small town where I lived in the 80s, a group of activists worked for half a year to restore and paint bikes that were donated by people. When about 60 bikes were ready, they were stationed in a dozen dedicated places to be used for free. The municipality and a few private companies helped with signposts at the staging points and plates for every bike. The project was introduced with a ceremony and a bike parade where all local celebrities were present. It was also announced in the local newspapers. All the bikes of this project were destroyed in only four days by vandals, mainly bored and idle youngsters. It was a disheartening experience for me, as I was involved very prominently in this project.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/16/chinas-booming-middle-class-drives-asias-toxic-e-waste-mountains
http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2988500/roundup_residues_in_food_cause_fatty_liver_disease.html

Economic news:
http://truepublica.org.uk/eu/ecb-head-mario-draghi-admits-for-first-time-eu-may-break-up/
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/01/fast-fashion-a-few-thoughts-sparked-recent-news.html
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/01/waste-not-want-not-right-repair-laws-on-agenda-states.html
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/01/28/europe-limits-on-cash-transactions-war-on-cash/
https://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/file_attachments/bp-economy-for-99-percent-160117-en.pdf
http://oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/8-men-now-own-the-same-as-the-poorest-half-of-the-world-the-davos-killer-fact-just-got-more-deadly/

Media news:
http://medialens.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=836:deranged-and-deluded-the-media-s-complicity-in-the-climate-crisis
http://www.spinwatch.org/index.php/issues/propaganda/item/5942-fake-news-propaganda-and-threats-to-journalism

Imperial news:
Once controlling 50 percent of world trade, the US share is now less than 20 percent.  This decline is partly due to the dismantling of its industrial economy as manufacturers have moved their factories abroad.
life-expectancy-us-2https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/johnson-elites-eying-the-exits-signals-americas-crisis
https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/01/24/america-suffering-very-real-water-crisis-few-are-acknowledging
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/america-becoming-third-world-country-19050?page=show Wow! For a long time I haven’t read an article as enlightened as this. And the author works in Qatar?
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/building_the_institutions_for_revolt_20170115The institutions and movements for revolt will most likely be crushed as soon as they gain traction. Only the stealth movements will survive.
http://www.commondreams.org/views/2017/01/16/how-american-life-continued-deteriorate-2016
http://www.sacbee.com/news/nation-world/national/article125306029.htmlus-national-debt-1980-2016A reader asked me: “hey r u a trump supporter ???????+ just asking  i wanted to know.
And I replied: “No, Trump stands for everything what I dislike.”
How can I support a billionaire who lives in his own skyscraper in New York and has vowed to slash environmental regulations, increase fossil fuel exploration, cut taxes for companies and the superrich, and privatize all public goods?”
us-flagImperial conquest news:
For nearly a month the main water supply has been cut off in Aleppo city and an estimated 1.8 million people in the city and rural eastern Aleppo are depending on emergency supplies fron the Red Crescent, government agencies, and UN. The pumping station (Babiri water plant near Maskana) cannot be accessed because it is on the west bank of Lake Assad in Islamic State territory. No Western paper bothered to report this. Damascus still suffers water shortages after the Islamists poisoned the water and damaged the pumping station in Wadi Barada.
Amnesty International, funded with grants from the USA, EU, UK, other Western governments, the Rockefeller Foundation and similar institutions, issued another report about alleged Syrian atrocities. Between 5,000 and 13,000 people are said to have been executed in the Saydnaya prison in Damascus.
This makes headline in all news channels and nobody questions the reports findings. It doesn’t matter that this is hearsay without any material evidence to back it up, it will be hammered into the brains of Western media consumers just like the Caesar photos, the Ghouta chemical attack in 2013, and the shouting of protesters in 2011.
Nobody will ask how this can make sense when the Syrian government released thousands of prisoners in 2011 and 2012, issued numerous amnesties, regularly pardons militants who surrender, and allows Islamists to leave enclaves to join their brethren in Idlib, even when they committed crimes like disrupting the Damascus water supply.
There is no evidence, that prominent and internationally known opposition figures were killed in Saydnaya. In contrast to that, there were many well known opposition leaders among the prisoners which the government released (Zahran Alloush).
Commonsense alone should tell anybody that this is war propaganda, but commonsense has no chance when an allegation is repeated again and again countlessly, while doubts and criticism are declared as “fake news” and filtered out by all search engines and social media platforms.
The boy, whose detention, torture, and murder by the Mukhabarat supposedly sparked the protests in Daraa was later found alive and well in Jordan, now we are told the reason for the protests were the detentions of a group of boys who painted graffiti (nothing what couldn’t have happened in any other county).
That Syrian forces were responsible for the Ghouta gas attack was never proven, UN experts and MIT scientists refuted the evidence
https://s3.amazonaws.com/s3.documentcloud.org/documents/1006045/possible-implications-of-bad-intelligence.pdf
Half of the Caesar photos turned out to be from Syrian government casualties, the Caesar photos are essentially a collection of dead body pictures without accompanying evidence of crimes by the government.
The AI report about Saydnaya is based on 84 testimonies of people in Turkey, Jordan, Europe, and USA. The interviewees are referred to by their first name only or are anonym. AI claims to have the names of 400 individuals who died in Saydnaya but doesn’t publish them. How come these witnesses only emerge now when the mass killings have supposedly happened since 2011? The presented satellite pictures show not mass graves but small cemeteries in military bases and the additional graves can be easily explained by the immense death toll of this merciless war.syria army casualties 33http://www.globalresearch.ca/usafricoms-neo-colonial-dominance-in-west-africa-behind-the-change-of-government-in-gambia/5570445
http://www.workers.org/2017/01/18/cuban-migration-and-u-s-policy-war/

Uncategorized news:
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/02/trump-administration-blacks-out-animal-welfare-information
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2017/02/unrest-is-the-only-growth-industry-left/
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/02/how-colonialism-shaped-modern-inequality.html
http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20170123-how-insects-like-bumblebees-do-so-much-with-tiny-brains
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/19/if-you-were-an-elephant-

News from cat land
The garden is still partly covered with snow, but the main pathways are walkable. I’ve already pruned the oldest grapevine. I should do that also with all other vines, but I want to wait till next year with that, to see how the old vine is reacting to the treatment. In commercial vineyards the plants are trimmed to four canes but I’m not sure my vines will appreciate that — they are used to grow as they please.

Despite the various and of contradictory theories about gardening until now nobody could convince me that the best time to prune all plants is not the end of winter. Beside the vine I’ve also pruned some fruit trees and herbs, as far as they have already reappeared from under the snow cover.

Last winter the rosemaries, sage, many strawberry plants, and even some marigold survived and continued growing like they just had hibernated. This will not happen this year. Rosemaries and sage are clearly dead and I’ve cut them to the ground, if they don’t sprout again, I will have to plant new ones. Three of the rosemaries were already one meter high, it would be sad to have lost them. Of course I could have covered them or pruned them at the start of winter. Would that have made a difference?

In an ideal world the garden should regenerate itself and no seeds or seedlings should be needed, but some species would not survive the hard competition without support (fennel, echinacea, cat mint for instance). Blueberries, my favorite berry bushes, do fairly well but propagation is difficult and takes time. At the moment it is still more feasible just to buy new bushes.

Plum and peach are the easiest trees to grow from pits and that is the reason a lot of young plum and peach trees are growing here. Some of the home grown peach trees are already four meters high and they have proven to be quite resistent against the debilitating peach leaf curl, a fungal disease which weakens the tree and prevents it from developing fruits.

I have also four older grafted peach trees which I bought in the first two years of my gardening experiment. They didn’t produce much fruits because they were all sick by peach leaf curl, probably already infected when I got them from the tree nursery. Last year I reluctantly tried for the first time a fungicide, based on the chemical difenoconazole, and I had the best peach harvest ever.

I trie to protect the soil by putting plastic storage boxes around the trees. Covering with tarpaulin sheets didn’t work because there are bushes around the trees and is nearly impossible to prevent the fungicide running from the sheets into the soil. The method with the boxes is not perfect but collects at least two thirds of the fungicide runoff, so the earthworms should be safe.

This is the only chemical I use in the garden and I will spray as less as possible but it will take years till I have found out the right dose or have found an alternative treatment.
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The cats are all healthy, only aunt Rosy has a persistent cold and is sneezing occasionally. It appears that after the abdication of Princess Min Ki a new leader of the family is emerging. It is not Gandni Jr., who has no interest in a leadership position and just wants his peace and quiet, but three year old Linda, who has become a huge cat with more than six kilogram weight.

Linda is very fit, she is often in the forest even when snow is high, and she never misses a walk. When it was very cold, Linda in fact was the only cat who accompanied me on the obligatory daily forest walk.

Alone because of her size, nobody will challenge Lindas leadership, but she makes sure who is the boss by occasionally sparring with Gandhi, who is as big and strong as her but usually just runs away to hide in a safe spot.

Which reminds me of the Melian dialogue, a dramatization of the negotiations between the Athenians and the Melians before the former launched a devastating siege which ended with the summary execution of all Melian men and the enslavement of all women.

The Athenians had argued: “The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” A principle which has been the basis of law and justice throughout human history with only minor exceptions.
linda-kb-bench-dscn1452

03.02.2017

Syria situation report February 2017

The fall of eastern Aleppo was a devastating blow to the jihadists who want to eradicate the Syrian secular state and replace it with an Islamic feudal system similar to Saudi Arabia or Qatar. But the jihadists have not given up yet and the two biggest groups, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (former Jabhat al-Nusra) and Ahrar al-Sham staged a number of clashes in their stronghold Idlib province to force smaller Islamist groups into mergers with either of them.

In addition to this ploy Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, who calls itself now Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham, raided a few headquarters and ammunition depots of so called “moderate rebels,” exterminating these groups as their leaders fled to Turkey and their fighters were incorporated into the renamed entity.

With the repeated name changes Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham, alias Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, alias Jabhat al-Nusra wants to further obscure its personal and ideological ties to al-Qaeda.

After the staged fights died down, most jihadists joined Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham, including Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zenki, Liwa al-Haqq, Jaish al-Sunna, Jabhat Ansar al-Din, and Fatah Haleb. The former al-Qaeda affiliate is seen as more effective and ideologically sound than Turkey controlled Ahrar al-Sham.

Idlib is comparatively quiet at the moment, but a steady stream of weapons transports via Turkey fills up depleted depots and it will not take too long till Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham has reorganized itself, incorporated the new fighters, and is able to start a new offensive. 

Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham’s logo refers to the Umayyad mosque in Damascus, thus illustrating the paramount goal, which is to conquer Damascus and with it the whole of Syria.

The USA only will attack Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham to kill some leaders with known links to al-Qaeda. All Islamists, even the most dangerous and despicable ones, are seen as allies in the fight against the secular Syrian government. Even under US President Trump Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham will not be attacked in the same way as the Islamic State, while the support of hardline Islamists by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Kuwait, UAE will be tolerated or even facilitated by the CIA.

Trump may be open to a detente with Russia but the people he surrounded himself with, like Michael Flynn and James N. Mattis, are rather inclined to continue using Islamists as proxy forces to further destabilize the Middle East.

Western NGOs are focussing on Idlib to keep basic services up and create the illusion that Islamist rule would enable the population a normal life. Aleppo city meanwhile is shunned, the 1.6 million Aleppans who choose to stay are obviously regarded as government supporters, not worthy of any Western help. Syrian and Russian organizations are distributing food and vouchers. There is still fear that the Islamists one day may come back.
army walking
While government forces were tied up driving rebels from the eastern districts of Aleppo city, Turkey in November invaded Syria along the border between Jarabulus and Azaz. The operation, called Euphrates Shield, was launched under the pretext of fighting IS (Islamic State), but had the ultimate goal of creating a safe haven for Islamic fighters and prevent the Kurds to link up their cantons Afrin and Kobane.

IS retreated amicably from Jarabulus and Dabiq, but makes a stand now in al-Bab. The Turkish offensive has stalled, proving that Turkeys Islamic rebels are utterly incompetent. Turkey has sent more and more regular troops into Syria, which do now all of the fighting while the Islamic rebels are relegated to supporting activities. Turkeys losses are considerable. At least 10 Leopard 2A4 tanks and various other armored vehicles have been destroyed, more that 40 soldiers died. These are official numbers, real casualties are likely much higher.

Turkeys ally Massoud Barzani has sent a few thousand Rojava Peshmerga to enter northern Syria and secure safe zones in coordination with the USA. The Rojava Peshmerga are formed out of Syrian Kurdish refugees in Iraqi Kurdistan and may replace the useless FSA-Islamists in securing the area along the border once Turkish soldiers retreat.

This could be risky, because Kurds will not fight against Kurds and the Peshmerga could easily change sides to join the YPG/YPJ.

Syrian army units (led by the legendary Tiger forces) have taken advantage of the Turkish troubles in al-Bab and grabbed a lot of land from IS, approaching al-Bab from the south. No one knows what will happen, when Syrian and Turkish soldiers meet, but one thing is clear: The Turkish army is severely weakened after the coup and the subsequent purge, it is a paper tiger and Erdogan has to be careful not to overplay his hand and be humiliated by a crushing defeat of his forces.

The Syrian government has sent letters to the UN Security Council Syria, protesting the Turkish invasion and accusing Ankara of providing military, material, logistic support to terrorist organizations, facilitating the entry of foreign militants into Syria, and setting up training camps for militants on Turkish soil.

Western permanent members of the Security Council will prevent a discussions of these protests (might makes right).
syrian-soldiers
The jihadist enclaves around Damascus shrink and are eliminated one by one. After Islamists poisoned Damascus’ water supply with diesel and damaged the pumping station, the army conquered the Wadi Barada valley near the Lebanese border. With 400 square kilometers this is a big area and another significant defeat of the Islamists. 2,000 of them were allowed to go to Idlib despite the fact, that they killed the chief negotiator of the government during talks.

Repairs of the pumping station have started and 5 million inhabitants of Damascus can hope that the water shortage will finally end after one month.

The biggest remaining Islamist enclaves around Damascus are East Ghouta and Yarmouk/Beit Saham and there will soon be heavy fighting to eliminate them. In the other enclaves (Madaya and Zabadani, Bayt Jinn, Dumayr, Ruhayba/Jayrud/Nasiria) are truces in place and they will eventually give up without a fight.

Jordan since one year apparently is out of the Syrian proxy game and the “Southern Front” effectively doesn’t exist anymore aside from local militias. Salaries for fighters have been cut in half by the MOC (Military Operation Center) in Amman.

Southern Front rebels were not able to launch a successful military operation for almost a year. In December they announced a large-scale offensive to clear out IS from Daraa and Quneitra, yet nothing happened other than an ambush where IS affiliate Jaysh Khalid ibn Walid captured lots of military supplies from the rebels.
syria-war-map-02-2017
IS is still dangerous and able to wreak havoc. While the Kurdish dominated SDF took huge areas of Raqqa western countryside, Turkey took the area south of the Turkish border, the Syrian army took a sizable junk of eastern Aleppo countryside, IS has reconquered Palmyra and is busy destroying what is left of the world-famous ancient monuments.

IS has also launched its most ambitious and intense operation since month, amassing forces around the besieged town Deir ez-Zor and trying to overrun it. The Islamists were able to cut the airport from the main city and though Syrian troops have taken back many lost points the supply road is still unusable because IS has fire control over the road.

94,000 Inhabitants of Deir ez-Zor are besieged and in danger of being slaughtered by the IS monsters. This is the number according to the UN World Food Program, who halted air drops on January 15 after IS overran the drop zone.

The siege of eastern Aleppo affected, as came out after the Syrian victory, some 120,000 people, and they were not in danger of being massacred by the army. After they surrendered, 34,000 militants and their families could leave Aleppo unharmed and go to Idlib.

Yet, while the siege of eastern Aleppo was reported around the clock across all news channels, called a mass slaughter, a crime against humanity, a genocide, the siege of Deir ez-Zor is pretty much ignored by Western mass media. The 94,000 people in Deir ez-Zor are deemed as regime supporters, not worthy Western compassion and empathy.
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Most of the more densely populated areas in Syria are now under control of the government, but on military maps the situation still doesn’t look good. The Islamic belligerents are preparing for a new rounds of violence despite the ceasefire which was negotiated by Syria, Russia, Turkey, and Iran in the Astana-Kazakhstan peace talks.

IS and Fateh al-Sham (now Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham) were excluded from the ceasefire anyway, the Islamists who attended the talks didn’t sign the final agreement.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar Kuwait, the UAE were not involved in the Astana peace talks and also did not delegate their wishes to Turkey to negotiate on their behalf. These countries enjoy significant influence over tens of thousands of militants fighting in Syria and can keep the war going on for a long, long time.

Russia, fearful to become trapped in the Syrian quagmire, tries to reach a political compromise but will find out that a few more victories like eastern Aleppo will be necessary to make peace a realistic option. Furthermore, Russian proposals for limited autonomy of the Kurds in a federal state are rejected by the Syrian Baath government. The Kurds and the Baath party, both secular and with socialist roots, would be the most logical allies to guarantee a stable secular state and keep the Islamists in check, yet at the moment mutual mistrust and resentments are still too big to make a cooperation possible.

The Russian announcement to pull out its forces from Syria is irrelevant because 4,500 officers and soldiers will be still spread all over Syria, operating on the ground. That the group of ships around the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier has left leaves not a void, they were not essential and rather part of a training mission.

While the battles are expected to regain their former intensity and the Astana ceasefire will fail just like the previous ones, the process is still a necessary step in the long journey towards a political solution.
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This situation report closes with an interview of 78 years old Flemish Father Daniel Maes, who lives in Syria in the sixth-century-old Mar Yakub monastery in the city of Qara, 90 kilometers north of the capital Damascus.

Father Daniel has been a witness to the “civil war” right from the start and according to him, Western reports on the conflict in Syria are very misleading. His assessment in short: “The Americans and their allies want to completely ruin the country.”

Interviewer: You are very critical of the media coverage on Syria. What is bothering you?
Father Daniel: The idea that a popular uprising took place against President Assad is completely false. I’ve been in Qara since 2010 and I have seen with my own eyes how agitators from outside Syria organized protests against the government and recruited young people. That was filmed and aired by Al Jazeera to give the impression that a rebellion was taking place. Murders were committed by foreign terrorists, against the Sunni and Christian communities, in an effort to sow religious and ethnic discord among the Syrian people. While in my experience, the Syrian people were actually very united.
Before the war, this was a harmonious country: a secular state in which different religious communities lived side by side peacefully. There was hardly any poverty, education was free, and health care was good. It was only not possible to freely express your political views. But most people did not care about that.
Interviewer: Mother Agnes-Mariam, of your Mar Yakub (“Saint Jacob”) monastery, is accused of siding with the regime. She has friends at the highest level.
Father Daniel: Mother Agnes-Mariam helps the population: She has recently opened a soup kitchen in Aleppo, where 25,000 meals are prepared five times a week. Look, it is miraculous that we are still alive. We owe that to the army of Assad’s government and to Vladimir Putin, because he decided to intervene when the rebels threatened to take power.
When thousands of terrorists settled in Qara, we became afraid for our lives. They came from the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia, Europe, Turkey, Libya, there were many Chechens. They formed a foreign occupation force, all allied to al-Qaeda and other terrorists. Armed to the teeth by the West and their allies with the intention to act against us, they literally said: “This country belongs to us now.” Often, they were drugged, they fought each other, in the evening they fired randomly. We had to hide in the crypts of the monastery for a long time. When the Syrian army chased them away, everybody was happy: The Syrian citizens because they hate the foreign rebels, and we because peace had returned.
Interviewer: You say that the Syrian Army protects civilians, yet there are all sorts of reports about war crimes committed by Assad’s forces, such as the bombardments with barrel bombs.
Father Daniel: Do you not know that the media coverage on Syria is the biggest media lie of our time? They have sold pure nonsense about Assad: It was actually the rebels who plundered and killed. Do you think that the Syrian people are stupid? Do you think those people were forced to cheer for Assad and Putin? It is the Americans who have a hand in all of this, for pipelines and natural resources in this region and to thwart Putin.
Saudi Arabia and Qatar want to establish a Sunni state in Syria, without religious freedom. Therefore, Assad must go. You know, when the Syrian army was preparing for the battle in Aleppo, Muslim soldiers came to me to be blessed. Between ordinary Muslims and Christians, there is no problem. It is those radical Islamic, Western-backed rebels who want to massacre us. They are all al-Qaeda and IS. There are not any moderate fighters anymore.
Interviewer: You once mentioned Hillary Clinton to be a “devil in holy water”, because as foreign minister, she deliberately worsened the conflict.
Father Daniel: I am happy with Trump. He sees what every normal person understands: That the United States should stop undermining countries which possess natural resources. The Americans’ attempt to impose a unipolar world is the biggest problem. Trump understands that radical Islam is a bigger threat than Russia.
What do I care whether he occasionally takes off his pants? If Trump practices geopolitics the way he has promised to do so, then the future looks bright. Then it will become similar to Putin’s approach. And hopefully then, there will be a solution for Syria, and peace will return.
Interviewer: You understand that your analysis is controversial and will encounter much criticism?
Father Daniel: I speak from personal observation. And no one has to believe me, right? But I know one thing: The media can either contribute to the massacre of the Syrian people or help the Syrian people, with their media coverage. Unfortunately, there are too many followers and cowards among journalists.