25.02.2015

What did Libyans gain from the Arab Spring?


Mustafa Fetouri
February 17 marked the fourth anniversary of the Libyan uprising and the events that led to the civil war and to the NATO bombing campaign which toppled Colonel Muammar Gaddafi’s government.

Four years on and the simple question arises of whether Libya and Libyans indeed achieved anything that is considered positive or worth continuously paying the price for.

Thousands of Libyans are still displaced inside Libya, where they live on charity handouts and in makeshift camps scattered in various areas of the oil-rich country. Tawergha, a coastal town east of Misrata, is indicative of what is going on. Its entire population of some 40,000 still cannot go home. In the final days of the 2011 war, militias destroyed almost the entire town’s homes and businesses.

Thousands of other families in the south, east, and in Tripoli itself still live away from their homes. Since last summer, Benghazi, where the rebellion started four years ago, is virtually a ghost city.

Thousands of more Libyans, myself included, fled to Tunisia, Egypt, the Gulf states, and many European countries in search of security and peace, or simply because they could not stay in Libya for fear of arbitrary arrest or death.
libya rebels 6
Dozens of former regime officials, including Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, Gaddafi’s son, are still stuck in legal limbo within a dysfunctional legal system that has so far failed to deliver any convictions. Another unknown number of innocent Libyans are either languishing in militia jails or have simply disappeared. I know of a couple of cases where families still have no clue as to what happened to their loved ones four years after they vanished.

In economic terms the situation is grim. All major infrastructure projects, which were in progress when the war erupted — many were in their final phase — have been suspended and looted as foreign investors who flocked to Libya before 2011 have left the country with no intention of returning any time soon. Libya faces bankruptcy as its only source of hard currency, oil production, has fallen to one-quarter of what it was four years ago.

Daily life for ordinary Libyans, in big cities and remote villages, over the last four years, has been a continuous struggle with high prices and all sorts of shortages. The hardest hit are large families that used to benefit from generous state subsidies which have now dried up.

In Tripoli, as in all parts of the country, power and fuel shortages dominate daily life. The average number of blackout hours reached 12 hours a day when I last visited Tripoli in October 2014. Now it has somewhat improved, but still power outages occur a minimum of nine hours a day and in some villages electricity is available only every other day. Cooking gas cylinders, if found on the black market, cost some 500 Libyan dinars ($368), or five times what they used to cost before the war.
Libya rebels convoy
Libyan society is more divided than it ever has been. It will take years to get back the social harmony and peaceful way of life Libyans enjoyed before February 2011, as the war has wreaked havoc on daily life of almost every Libyan family. The tribal society used to have a well-entrenched frame of reference, where religious and social norms were observed and respected by all. Disputes and quarrels used to be settled amicably outside the court system thanks to wise elders who were respected and enjoyed high esteem. This unwritten code of conduct has disappeared and is being replaced by another in which groups without social roots and lacking any social cohesion dominate and impose their preferred kind of order. They are mostly armed gangs and social outcasts who call themselves “thawar” and they have arms ready to use whenever they like. Libyan social life itself has been badly hit, as reflected in the increasingly weak relations between families and even within families.

The country is also facing a multitude of political problems. Libya now has two governments, two parliaments and two armies. The elected Tobruk-based government headed by Abdullah al-Thani and the unelected Tripoli-based government headed by Omar al-Hasi claim working for the benefit of Libyans. Yet, they are unable to protect their citizens, solve simple electricity shortages, provide medical care or security. Under the nose of both governments, the Islamic State and other extremist groups continue to operate with almost total impunity.

While both sides are quarreling and fighting, ordinary Libyans are descending into despair and hopelessness, especially the youth. It is no surprise that extremist organizations, armed gangs and militias find plenty of recruits. Young people, in particular, are vulnerable to drug addiction, radicalization and social alienation.
The country itself is on the brink of falling apart into its pre-1951 independence situation, where it used to have three semi-independent regions: Fezzan in the south, Tripolitania in the west, and Cyrenaica in the east.
Libya partition
The security situation is worse still. Parents do not know whether it is safe enough to let their children go unaccompanied to the local school. At night, one is likely to be declared missing if not home by 10 p.m. Most women do not drive any longer and stay mostly indoors for weeks on end. I still remember the times when I would rarely lock my car or my house, and women were safe to drive at night on Tripoli’s main streets. Families would gather in cafes and at the seafront until late and nothing would threaten them. We, Libyan citicens, used to take security and safety for granted. It was extremely rare to hear of an explosion or car bomb attack. Today, explosions and even suicide attacks are frequent in Tripoli.

All this while the international community still cannot agree on any workable plan to stabilize Libya, except for the UN-brokered talks that are scheduled to resume in Morocco. However, little is expected from these talks.

Nevertheless, in all this instability and chaos, Libyans might also be gaining certain things that might have taken years to materialize otherwise. For instance, there are now over a dozen private TV stations and more than 20 newspapers in addition to tens of regional radio stations. There are at least 100 political parties and dozens of NGOs (nongovernmental organizations) catering to almost every imaginable cause. Yet, very little is being said or done about serious problems facing the country or initiatives which could make a positive impact on individual lives. Unfortunately, any positive impact of NGOs is being offset by hundreds of disingenuous religious preachers competing for the hearts of young Libyans, poisoning their minds with all kinds of evil.

Reflecting on what we Libyans have achieved, it is tempting to say that Muammar Gaddafi might have been a dictator, intolerable of dissent and sometimes heavy-handed, but at least he provided security, basic needs, a social safety net, and he kept the country together.
Libya Gaddafi supporters

22.02.2015

Turkey gets a foot into the Syrian door


The Turkish Army launched a military incursion into Syria late Saturday, February 21, to evacuate the Tomb of Suleyman Shah, which allegedly has been besieged by IS (Islamic State) terrorists since last year.

A Turkish lawmaker said on his Twitter account that Turkish military had entered into Syria and arrived at the Suleyman Shah tomb early Sunday. “TSK (Turkish Armed Forces) entered in Saygi Station. Our station is taken under protection. Clashes or attacks out of question,” wrote Sinan Ogan, a deputy of the opposition Nationalist Movement Party.

The initial reports about this military operation in the online editions of the Turkish newspapers Milliyet and Yeni Safak were pulled from the internet almost immediately after being posted, but Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu confirmed now the successful conclusion of the operation.
Suleyman Shah 1
A large convoy of 39 tanks and other heavy weaponry with 572 military personnel including special forces commandos entered Syria through Kobane, the Kurdish territory in Syria which has recently been freed of IS occupants in a military operation by the Kurdish YPG/YPJ.

The military operation was reportedly conducted in correspondence with Enver Muslim, co-leader of the Syrian Kurdish YPG in control of Kobane, and aimed to evacuate 38 soldiers, including 20 elite troops from the Turkish special forces who guarded the tomb.

Turkish prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu told a news conference on Sunday, February 22, that Turkey had not sought permission or assistance for the mission but had informed allies in the US-coalition against IS once it began.

This was an extremely successful operation with no loss to our rights under international law,” he said, flanked by the chief of the military and the defense minister.

Two operations were carried out simultaneously as part of what was dubbed operation “Shah Euphrates,” Davutoglu told, one to Suleyman Shah and the other to secure the area around Esmesi, a small village inside Syrian territory close to the Turkish border, where the tomb has been temporarily relocated. The remaining buildings at the original site were destroyed to prevent their use after the remains were removed.

There have been no reports of clashes but one Turkish soldier died in an accident.
Suleyman Shah 3
Suleyman Shah was the grandfather of Osman I, who founded the Ottoman empire in 1299. Travelling through modern-day Syria, according to historians, he fell off his horse and drowned in the Euphrates near the site of todays mausoleum, located 37 kilometer from the Turkish border. His tomb is considered by the Turkish government to be Turkish territory.

Davutoglu has repeatedly said that Turkey would retaliate against any attack on the tomb. “Countries which do not look after their historic symbols cannot build their future,” Davutoglu stated when he announced the military intrusion.

In March 2014, Davutoglu, foreign minister at the time, said that Turkey would take any measure necessary to safeguard the security of the tomb, referred to as Turkish soil based on an accord signed between Turkey and France in 1921.

Should there be an attack, either from the regime, or radical groups or elsewhere, it would be countered equally,” Davutoglu said categorically. His statement was soon followed by the replacement of the tomb’s regular guards with special forces troops.

In 2012, at a time when the Syrian conflict had intensified and Turkey’s support for Islamic militants became more obvious, Ankara revised its military engagement rules and licensed the army to launch cross-border operations if they were deemed necessary.

Until now there is no reaction of the Syrian government and it is not known if the Turkish troops will stay or retreat to Turkey again.
Suleyman Shah 2 tanks
 

18.02.2015

Ukrainian unknowns and uncertainties Part 2


In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
George Orwell

The establishment media has, with not only biased but also inaccurate and clueless reporting about the Ukraine, again proven to be completely useless. It still makes sense to skim the headlines of Reuters, New York Times, and Washington Post to get informed about the newest marching orders from the “Ministry of Truth,” but beyond that certain authoritative blogs and dissident media are the only sources for correct and complete information about the real situation on the ground and the background of particular developments.

The Minsk 2 agreement was all about Debalsevo, and it demonstrates the ignorance of Ukrainian President Pedro Poroshenko, that he was not even aware of the seriousness of the military situation and first had to be convinced by German Chancellor Angela Merkel that Ukrainian troops trapped in there were facing a Stalingrad-like defeat.

Merkel was correctly informed by the BND (Bundesnachrichtendienst), and Debaltsevo became the main theme and sticking point of the 17 hour long negotiations between Merkel, Poroshenko, and Russian President Vladimir Putin. French President Francois Hollande plaid his part as Merkels lapdog, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko was an unobtrusive host.

The haste on the part of Merkel to advance this meeting was certainly given impetus by the specter of a dangerous escalation which could lead to NATO battling Russia on Ukrainian soil or even the slow motion start of WW III.

A war between NATO and Russia is not inconceivable anymore but it was not the threat of new weapons deliveries by the USA which caused Merkel to act, because advanced US weapons arrive already since October in significant numbers. “According to our data, the weapons are already being delivered,” — Putin told at a press conference after talks with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, responding to a reporter’s question about Russia’s reaction to the possibility of weapons supplies to Ukraine.

The NAF (Novorussia Armed Forces) posted countless evidence of Czech, German, and US weapons and ammunition on YouTube and blogs. M109 (Paladin) self propelled howitzers have been spotted several times and unexploded NATO ordnance can be found everywhere along the front lines. The Ukrainian ammunition stocks from Soviet times have long been used up.

Polish, French, and British specialists were certainly among the Ukrainian units trapped in the Debaltsevo cauldron, as the NAF intercepted many conversations between Ukrainian units and the headquarter in English, French, and Polish. It seems though that most of foreign soldiers have been able to escape. They were the first to be evacuated together with the leading officers.

The USA would of course rather like to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian soldier but as Kiev is quickly running out of canon fodder, alternatively advisers, trainers, and specialists from NATO countries have to step in.

The war in Donbass has long ago morphed from a local conflict into a proxy war between the West (meaning the USA plus NATO vassals) and Russia. One could as well say, it was a proxy war right from the beginning.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel wanted to spare Poroshenko a humiliating defeat, but she also wanted to send a subtle message to US President Barack Obama, that Europe is not willing to sacrifice itself for the greater goal of US world dominance. She thought that Putin, facing the threat of a military escalation by NATO and increasing economic warfare, could be convinced to let Poroshenko off the hook.

The personal relation between Poroshenko and Putin is astonishing amiable, many insiders confirm that Poroshenko on a personal level gets along with Putin far better than his predecessor Viktor Yanukovych.
deboltsevo 18 02 2015 map
Merkel saw a chance to save the Ukrainian battalions, but Putin didn’t blink. He has proven again and again that he cannot be intimidated and cowed. Russia has a small army, the military expenses are lover than that of Britain and France combined, but the army has been modernized, new sophisticated weapons have been developed, and there is still the nuclear deterrent (1,643 nuclear missiles ready to launch — one more than the USA — according to an official US State Department report). Both countries have been upgrading their active nuclear arsenals since the outbreak of the Ukrainian conflict.

The Pentagon with a budget which accounts for more than 40 percent of the worlds military expenditure wastes a lot of these funds, the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter being a prime example. The US nuclear submarines (Virginia, Seawolf, Ohio) could become obsolete by new sophisticated detection methods which can even localize the most quiet vessels and many aviation experts think that the Sukhoi T-50 and SU-35 will easily compete with US jets F-22 and F-35. The same is said about T90A against M1A2 Abrams tanks.

One just has to think about the M16 assault rifle, which is prone to jams and other failures, versus the AK-47 (Kalashnikov), which just works no matter what.

Unasked questions

What no Western media outlet ever addressed is the reason why a force of 6,000 Ukrainian (including an unknown number of foreign) troops were massed in a rather small town of 26,000 people. Debaltsevo is a railroad hub and lies right in the middle between Luhansk and Donetsk, but a garrison of a few hundred soldiers would have been enough to secure the place.

The only reason for this massive number of troops to be concentrated there and to remain even as the cauldron was slowly closing was the designation as an offensive force to break through the front line in the southeast direction towards the Russian border, isolating Donetsk from Luhansk and subsequently finishing off first the Luhansk militia and then the Donetsk one.

This grand strategic plan didn’t work out, as we know now, and the NAF was well aware of the Ukrainian intentions. It is likely that there are sympathizers even at the higher levels of the Ukrainian military command who inform the NAF about projected moves, but even without spies the Russian generals in the control room which plan the Novorussian maneuvers can easily guess what their counterparts are up to, they went through the same military academies back in Soviet times and know the way of thinking of their counterparts.

Betting big, loosing big

The defeat in Debalsevo is not comparable with the Ilovaysk cauldron in September, where some 800 Ukrainian lost their lives, this is bigger, this is a catastrophe for the Ukrainian army. The soldiers in Debaltsevo were the best trained and best motivated, they had the best equipment and the most capable officers.

This force was maybe a third or even more of the Ukrainian combat capacity. The advising Russian generals saw the chance to destroy it and the NAF didn’t loose any time to close the cauldron. Additional artillery was hastily moved in from other parts of the front and also from Russia. This was not a risky move, it was a coherent strategy.

The risk takers were the Ukrainian generals who thought that they could keep the NAF at bay and retain control over the M-103 road between Debaltsevo and Artemivsk.
destroyed artillery snow
The Ukrainian army attacked the small village of Logvinovo near this road with no less than three battalion tactical groups numbering up to eight hundred people, supported by not less than forty tanks. Fresh, well-armed and well-trained battalions went in the battle.

But they had to advance across the steppe, practically in the open, in full view of the heights held by the militia. Under crossfire, they rushed forward with exceptional persistence, ignoring the losses, skillfully using terrain folds and maintaining tactical order.

In the end only a handful of soldiers and two tanks made it into Logvinovo where they were destroyed by the Novorussian defenders.

A few days later in a desperate last ditch attempt the army was trying to assemble another three battalion tactical groups and numerous MLRS (multiple launch rocket systems) north of the cauldron in order to rescue the surrounded forces but it was too late, the planned offensive didn’t even get off.
destroyed tank snow
The Ukrainian soldiers in Debalsevo which are still alive are now either retreating or surrendering.

Eduard Basurin, a military spokesperson for the NAF, confirmed taking some 300 soldiers prisoner and Maksim Leshchenko, a senior official from the Donetsk People’s Republic, told journalists that the Ukrainian troops are laying down the weapons “in their hundreds.”

The mothers and wives of the men caught in the cauldron were trying everything they could to force the Ukrainian high command to accept the Novorussian offer of an evacuation corridor. They protested in front of the General Staff building in Kiev and blocked the traffic on a nearby highway. In a particularly poignant moment one of these women put a megaphone next to her cellphone to amplify the voice of her son calling from the cauldron and announcing that they had only about 3 hours of supplies left.
dead soldier snow 1
President Petro Poroshenko finally has given an order to withdraw the troops, saying: “We stated and proved that Debaltsevo was under our control and that there was no encirclement. Our units withdrew according to plan in an organized manner. They took military hardware with them — tanks, APCs, artillery pieces, tow-tracks, cars.” He added that some 80 percent of the troops have already left the city.

Foreign corespondents report a chaotic retreat. Hundreds of Ukrainian troops flood the city of Artemivsk, 25 miles northwest of Debaltsevo, with two hundred wounded soldiers arriving at the city’s trauma hospital. Blood-soaked stretchers are piled outside the main entrance to be taken and used for the next load of severely wounded.

Many soldiers describe a dangerous retreat in the night over frozen fields, being under nearly constant fire. One medic said he had taken 20 dead to the morgue, most of whom had been killed making their way out of the town. Some had been killed on top of troop carriers as they drove.

The NAF has been heavily shelling any vehicles on a 12 kilometer stretch of the so called “road of life” (which now has become a road of death), the M-103 between Debaltsevo and Artemivsk. Ukrainian tanks took position near a smaller road leading to Artemivsk through Mironovka to cover the escape. But that road is also under fire,

We got out through the fields,” told a soldier who was lucky to escape. Most of the city is captured and government forces were “breaking out little by little,” he said.
dead soldier snow 2
Another soldier told that he had been in a convoy bringing out about a dozen wounded. They had been under heavy mortar and machine gun fire and had fallen into rebel ambushes twice along the way.

Soldiers from the 108th brigade of the national guard said they had been picking up men escaping from Debaltsevo by foot. When asked about the intensity of the enemy fire along the escape route, they pointed to a rear wheel of their armored fighting vehicle, which had been shredded by a mortar round.

Guys are running out on foot through the fields because the rebels are shelling vehicles. They give us the coordinates and we pick them up,” another soldier in this vehicle told. He said the unit had picked up hundreds of men from Debaltsevo.

“Gusar,” an officer of the 128th Brigade published a post on the Zerkalo Nedeli web site:

We are facing the second Ilovaysk. It’s been five days since the cauldron had closed. When the Donetsk Airport was taken, they lied to people for five days that it’s under control. In reality it was the other way around. Debaltsevo is under de-facto encirclement since five days ago. There used to be a small path which they tried to use to break out. They lost vehicles but broke out. The enemy occupied the commanding heights along the road and has it covered with fire. People are telling us nice stories that there are still communication routs, some detours, dirt roads…There was a road like that, but as of yesterday the convoy of five vehicles that left Debaltsevo lost all five of them. Only seven guys made it out. We don’t know what happened to the rest.”

Volunteer fighter Vitaliy Tilizhenko posted on Facebook:

The Debaltsevo cauldron had closed! There is exfiltration by small groups. Somebody is covering the withdrawal and holding positions, gradually abandoning them and withdrawing. We have lost the police HQ and the rail station in the morning. We lost 1/3 of our equipment at Ilovaysk. We’ll lose most equipment here, abandoning it because people are more valuable, and there will be nothing to fight with, as always. All withdrawing groups are falling into ambushes and are losing men and equipment. The ambushes are growing stronger and more fortified with every hour, and the percentage of people making it out of the cauldron is dropping. They won’t say this on TV. Everything is great there. Pedro Poroshenko outplayed everyone, no need for martial law, Europe is concerned, etc.

Semen Semenchenko, Ukrainian MP and commander of one of Kiev’s volunteer battalions, confirmed that the troops were being withdrawn from the contested city. He demanded that Kiev should now attack in other parts of the frontline, which had been weakened by the rebels to lay siege on Debaltsevo.

They are empty and we have troops. One strike and the frontline would crumble,” he assured, adding that the current withdrawal is “beyond comprehension.”

The Novorussian’s are indeed thin stretched and they have paid a high price, an estimated third of their fighters have either been killed or wounded.

There are plenty of unmarked (numbered) graves on the burial ground of the militia, because bodies are shredded or incinerated by artillery hits, and when the comrades collect the remains they are unable to determine to whom they belong.

The German BND estimates that this conflict has cost up to 50,000 lives until now. If it goes on like this a few more month, it will become the bloodiest war in Europe since WW II.

Poroshenko’s advisor Yuriy Biryukov said in an interview on Ukraine’s Hromadske TV that the military does not have the resources anymore to conduct meaningful offensive operations. Biryukov was one of the most ardent advocates for the ATO (anti terrorist operation) in the Donbass, so it’s rather astonishing that he has now changed his mind. The Ukrainian army must really be at the end of its tether if even Biryukov acknowledges its incapacitation.

The Ukrainian army is defeated but the neo-Nazis in the punitive battalions (Azov, Aidar, Donbass, Dnepr-1, and the like) vie for revenge not only against the ethnic Russians but also against the government in Kiev who has, as they see it, betrayed them.

President Poroshenko and some members of the Verkhovna Rada have reportedly taken their families abroad. The wife of Poroshenko left Kiev with the children on a charter flight, going through Paris to the USA.
Again: Betting big, loosing big.

But this is a bloody game, and many innocent people die, while the uncertainty about Ukraine’s future remains.
cat militia fighter
As long as there are cats, life remains bearable even in the darkest hours.
Vsevolod Petrovsky, presente catVsevolod Petrovsky, depicted above, has died in the recent fighting. It is not known what became of his cat.

Further reading:
http://mato48.com/2015/02/08/ukrainian-unknowns-and-uncertainties-part-1/
http://mato48.com/2015/01/25/there-is-no-meltdown/
http://mato48.com/2015/01/20/a-new-phase-in-the-ukrainian-war/
http://mato48.com/2014/12/28/a-testimony-to-be-considered/
http://mato48.com/2014/12/07/news-from-novorussia/
http://mato48.com/2014/11/23/shattered-dreams-of-victory-and-prosperity/
http://mato48.com/2014/09/14/strange-bedfellows/
http://mato48.com/2014/09/06/against-oligarchs-and-false-politicians/
http://mato48.com/2014/09/02/report-from-a-war-zone/
http://mato48.com/2014/08/30/interview-with-alexej-mozgovoi/
http://mato48.com/2014/08/11/did-the-ukraine-shoot-down-mh17/
http://mato48.com/2014/03/09/ukraine-update-1/
http://mato48.com/2014/03/04/latest-news-from-ukraine/
http://mato48.com/2014/02/26/the-freedom-snipers-of-maidan-part-2/

13.02.2015

Links February 2015


Environmental news:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/11/australias-oldest-man-sweaters-penguins-oil_n_6660962.html
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/entertainment/03-Feb-2015/cancer-deaths-worldwide-to-rise-to-over-11mn-in-2030 For decades health officials told that cancer is declining, but suddenly they report that it is rising. Everybody who came near one of the overcrowded ontological wards in the hospitals knew that.
http://www.outsideonline.com/outdoor-adventure/nature/Jairo-Mora-Sandoval-Murder-Trial-Ends-in-Acquittals.html Justice not done! The poaching can continue with impunity.
http://touch.latimes.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-82701923/
http://news.mongabay.com/2015/0115-hance-industrialized-oceans.html
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/25/drowning-in-plastic-rubbish-in-oceans-ecological-emergency
http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/jan/26/plastic-oceans-environment-waste-recycling-fish
http://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/123-A34/ Thoroughly researched and informative.
http://news.mongabay.com/2015/0202-wilson-pollutants-albatross.html
http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/feb/10/phthalates-plastics-chemicals-research-analysis
http://dgrnewsservice.org/2015/01/07/michael-carter-stop-off-road-vehicles-part-1/
http://dgrnewsservice.org/2015/01/18/michael-carter-stop-off-road-vehicles-part-2/
http://deepgreenresistancecolorado.org/2015/01/26/nations-biggest-mall-colorado-will-destroy-one-largest-prairie-dog-colonies-colorados-front-range/ Prairie dogs are cute,but who cares.
http://www.climatenewsnetwork.net/no-prospect-relief-constant-nuclear-headache/ Our descendants will hate us.
http://www.enviroreporter.com/2015/01/high-radiation-detected-in-l-a-rain/
http://www.japantoday.com/smartphone/view/technology/robot-to-probe-melted-fukushima-reactor TEPCO has run out of homeless people?
http://digital.vpr.net/post/state-finds-radioactive-material-vermont-yankee-groundwater
http://www.timesargus.com/article/20150211/NEWS03/702119923 A lasting legacy.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26933-rise-in-wildfires-may-resurrect-chernobyls-radiation.html
http://www.environmentalhealthnews.org/ehs/news/2015/jan/bpa-exposure-linked-to-changes-in-stem-cells-lower-sperm-productionHuman overpopulation problem solved.
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/peer-reviewing-climate-denial
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/01/27/opinion/schubert-herbicides-crops/
http://www.thanhniennews.com/health/polluted-water-blamed-for-cancer-villages-in-vietnam-38276.html
http://english.caixin.com/2015-02-09/100782645.html
http://www.globalresearch.ca/whats-behind-big-pharmas-freak-out-media-blitz-over-measles/5430542 Hard to say what is right, but in this time of universal deception alternative views have to be considered.

Media (Ministry of Truth) news:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/bbc-reporter-tim-wilcox-forced-to-apologize-for-comments-sympathetic-to-palestinians-at-paris-free-speech-rally/5425077
https://consortiumnews.com/2015/01/24/nyt-is-lost-in-its-ukraine-propaganda/
http://medialens.org/index.php/alerts/alert-archive/2015/784-death-by-a-thousand-cuts-earth-enters-the-danger-zone.html
http://medialens.org/index.php/alerts/alert-archive/2015/785-feral-journalism-rewilding-dissent.html

Economic news:
http://www.theverge.com/2015/2/2/7963911/greek-austerity-increased-suicides-financial-crisis-bmj-study
http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/01/30/greece-the-us-and-the-neo-liberal-coup/
http://www.theautomaticearth.com/bunch-of-criminals/
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/22/qe-eurozone-confidence-trick-quantitative-easing-money-circulation
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/eu-fears-ttif-free-trade-agreement-could-spur-litigation-a-1015013.html
http://friendsofkosovo.com/2015/01/31/steamrolled-a-special-investigation-into-the-diplomacy-of-doing-business-abroad/ This would as well fit into the category “imperial conquest news.” It is a prime example how to fleece a “liberated” country.
http://www.theguardian.com/public-leaders-network/2015/jan/23/nervous-super-rich-planning-escapes-davos-2015

Imperial news:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/02/06/how-no-nukes-obama-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-the-bomb.html
http://truth-out.org/opinion/item/28601-life-liberty-happiness-health-food-shelter
http://www.workers.org/articles/2015/01/14/lynne-stewart-reflects-year-free-prison/
http://www.workers.org/articles/2015/01/14/event-honors-samiya-goldii-abdullah-jamals-life/
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175944/tomgram%3A_maya_schenwar%2C_prison_by_any_other_name
http://cindysheehanssoapbox.blogspot.com/2015/01/casey-vs-kyle-by-cindy-sheehan.html
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/killing_ragheads_for_jesus_20150125
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/28721-death-dealing-politics-in-the-age-of-extreme-violence
http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/01/29/tar-sands-crude-permits-keep-rolling/
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175951/tomgram%3A_engelhardt%2C_i.f._stone_and_the_urge_to_serve/An icon of old-school US journalism, a gifted writer, always trying to be honest, but nevertheless not able to jump the US-shadow, finally writes something really essential.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/anti-oil-sands-activists-in-the-us-are-getting-visits-from-the-fbi/article22851903/

Imperial conquest news:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/ts/why-is-america-ignoring-kurdish-freedom-movement
https://consortiumnews.com/2015/01/15/the-problems-with-being-charlie/
https://consortiumnews.com/2015/01/14/a-free-press-and-double-standards/
http://medialens.org/index.php/alerts/alert-archive/2015/783-charlie-hebdo-and-the-war-for-civilisation.html
http://observer.com/2015/01/the-new-ukraine-is-run-by-rogues-sexpots-warlords-lunatics-and-oligarchs/
http://www.ipsnews.net/2015/01/opinion-the-corporate-takeover-of-ukrainian-agriculture/
https://consortiumnews.com/2015/01/19/the-danger-of-an-mh-17-cold-case/
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/01/19/trolling-russia-israel-shamir/
http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/02/04/3123
http://www.globalresearch.ca/russia-in-the-cross-hairs-washingtons-threats-have-moved-into-the-realm-of-insanity/5427575
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/new-snowden-docs-indicate-scope-of-nsa-preparations-for-cyber-battle-a-1013409.html
http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/asia/central-asia/b072-syria-calling-radicalisation-in-central-asia
http://21stcenturywire.com/2015/01/21/arms-to-isis-u-s-generals-admit-that-washington-has-backed-al-qaeda-in-syria/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-03/another-conspiracy-theory-becomes-fact-entire-oil-collapse-all-about-crushing-russia If it would be that simple….
http://www.globalresearch.ca/new-saudi-king-tied-to-al-qaeda-bin-laden-and-islamic-terrorism/5429307
http://friendsofsyria.co/2015/02/02/i-love-syria/
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13931107001527
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-strategy-behind-israels-attack-on-iran-and-hizballah/5426298
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/news/middle-east/16463-israeli-soldier-gives-74-year-old-palestinian-woman-water-then-shoots-her-in-the-head a more narrow definition of the human race: Gentiles don’t belong to it.
http://www.intifada-palestine.com/2015/02/israel-jewish-brown-shirts
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/articles/middle-east/16902-water-running-dry-for-palestinians-as-israel-turns-off-the-taps Drying to death the vermin.
http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/serbia-quietly-grants-citizenship-to-abbas-rival Every country has its price.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/western-intervention-and-the-colonial-mindset/5425633
http://www.voltairenet.org/article186522.html
https://gowans.wordpress.com/2015/01/27/south-koreas-police-state-wages-war-against-proponents-of-democracy/
http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/02/02/venezuela-a-coup-in-real-time/ The empire never retreats.
Linda tree snow DSCN1214
News from cat land

It has been colder in the last weeks and the trees, fields, meadows, and roads were (and still are) covered with a thick blanket of snow. The cats are most times in the house, gathering around the wood stove, which is providing cosy warmth in parallel to the central heating.

The uncomfortable climate converts my feline friends temporarily to indoor cats and it also makes them weary of going outside into the wood to the places which they usually use as toilets.

Most cats are clean and tidy and take care to cover their poop, but going out into the cold and wading through the deep snow is too much ask for the senior cats, and therefore for them I have set up three litter boxes. Unfortunately it took not very long for the younger cats to find out that the litter boxes are indeed more convenient than going out into the snow and they too now increasingly use them for their business.

Even Princess Min Ki, who never in her life thought of going to a litter box, was lately taking advantage of the new installations. Sitting in one of the boxes, she looked at me proudly and meowed: “You think that I’m a country girl, because I grew up on a farm, but I’m also able to use the benefits of civilization just like the other cats.”

So I’m busy cleaning up the litter boxes at least once a day. It is a labor of love — and I’m hoping for warmer weather!
Linda deep snow DSCN3469
Three of my feline friends still accompany me, braving the cold, on the daily walk through the forest. Linda is the most eager participant. She is now half a year old, bursting of energy, always on the move, jumping around, crawling into the underbrush, and sniffing everywhere. The other two courageous walkers are Princess Min Ki and Rosy, with 11 and 12 years already senior cat ladies. They feel a bit intimidated by the young vital cat but Linda is making everything right, always being respectful and friendly to her fellow cats.

This walks go on now since 12 years, and Rosy is the only one of the original cast who is still around. 12 years is a long time, and it were amazing 12 years, worth to write a book about it (or at least collect all the blog posts which I published about the walks in one folder).
Rosy Linda forest snow DSCN1247 b
The roads are often icy and slippery, greatly increasing the risk of an accident. Fortunately the need to go out shopping is greatly reduced in my household. The freezers are still two-thirds full with late years harvest from the garden and the stocks of staples like lentils, rolled oats, and rice will last for at least half a year.

A few days ago I had to go shopping nevertheless because cat litter had run out. I went to a supermarket who is a known vendor for a special cat litter which can be composted. Unfortunately the cat litter was sold out, other cat hosts seem to encounter the same problems as I do.

I went to two other supermarkets until fortunately I found the desired cat litter. I didn’t buy any other items but as I rushed through the aisles I looked at the pet food and discovered that at all venues the cat food section was at least twice as big as the dog food section.

It seems that cats in my location and probably in many other places too increasingly outnumber all other pets, a development confirmed by official statistics which state that somewhere around 1996 cats overtook dogs as the favorite human pet companions.
Linda forest snow DSCN3481
According to Euromonitor, a company which makes a business out of estimating pet populations around the world, cats outnumber dogs three-to-one in Switzerland and Austria. Cats dominate also in Sweden and they top dogs in most other European countries, in the Middle East, parts of Africa, North America, and Indonesia.

USA
88.3 million cats
74.8 million dogs

Russia
21.0 million cats
15.5 million dogs

An old statistic from 1998 (I didn’t find a more recent one) says that the countries with the heighest cat per human population ratios are the USA, Austria, Switzerland, Netherlands, Hungary, Slovenia, Sweden, Belgium, France, Norway. These are all quite affluent countries, but it is probably too advantageous to jump to the conclusion that the cats are responsible for the prosperity.

The official cat numbers are most certainly too low because the feral cat population cannot be estimated by any means. Cats are elusive even in that respect.

The popularity of cats is undoubtedly helped by the fact that they are simultaneously affectionate and self-reliant: They need no training, they clean and groom themselves, they can be left alone without pining for their owners, though most nonetheless greet us affectionately when we come back home again.

If we are away for too long, they will be sulking and let us know that it was not right to disappear for such a long time.
Linda snow DSCN3477
The phrase “domestic cat” is an oxymoron
George F. Will 

In contrast to almost every other domestic animal, cats retain remarkable control over their own lives. Most do whatever they please and go wherever they please and when they feel impeded or trapped they will take the first chance to escape and search for a better place. Many notices on lamp posts, fences, and walls about missing or lost kitties confirm this particular cat behavior. The missing cat most likely didn’t get lost but just moved on to greener pastures.

Sometimes the lost cat returns after a few days or weeks, which means that a better host was not found and the animal came to the conclusion that the old place was still the best deal in store.

Artists like cats; soldiers like dogs
Desmond Morris

Cats are not heroic, are not overly loyal, and will not (or only very seldom) sacrifice their life for the human friend, even if they like her or him very much. And that is how it should be. If one feels threatened, one has to get a dog, hire a bodyguard, or move to a safer place (the latter seems the most sensible option).
Linda tree snow DSCN1197 b
Cats can be very affectionate, but they are loners by nature and seldom have more than one or two friends. This stems from their evolutionary past: Wildcats are largely solitary, territorial, and regard most other cats as rivals. Domestic cats’ default position on other cats remains one of suspicion, though there are huge individual differences.

Just like humans, cats can learn, change, reinvent themselves. They can greatly extend their social repertoire and nearly always will return the love and affection they receive. And often they will give it back double.

Miss Maple, our 17 year old cat lady, who five years ago fled from a neighbor to join the family, is a good example for cat-adaptability. She was quite troubled and difficult when she came here but is getting nicer and more agreeable all the time. She is still an old crabby lady, her arthritis makes her sometimes itchy and bad-tempered. But she starts purring when I talk with her or touch her and she doesn’t object anymore when a fellow cat lays down beside her.

Cats are jealous, and the older cats clearly envy the two young cats Gandhi Jr. and Linda for their light-heartedness and liveliness. Miss Marple often looks at Linda and me melancholy and quietly meows: “Why didn’t we meet when I was young?”

Well, life is a chance, and for some people it can be a sequence of missed chances. We are only seldom in the right place at the right time, and if such an event accidentally happens it may even be that we are not aware off it and are missing an opportunity that will never come again.

Never mind, my little old lady. I’ll spend as much time with you as you need and I’ll turn the remaining years of your life into your best ones. Don’t forget, this place is called “cat paradise.”
Sumo aka Indi

08.02.2015

Ukrainian unknowns and uncertainties Part 1


There are known knowns.There are known unknowns.But there are also unknown unknowns.Donald Rumsfeld

While some people think that Donald Rumsfeld was entertaining with his occasional forays into epistemology (the unknown unknowns), for other people his legacy is defined by the participation in the Iraq war, one of the biggest warcrimes in modern history.

Yet, aside from his contribution to US war atrocities Rumsfeld with his widely cited statement about unknown unknowns for sure was onto something. His words are an admission of our limited knowledge, a result of our cognitive and intellectual limits. The awareness of these limits in turn inevitably must lead to the assumption, that only one’s own mind is sure to exist, an epistemological position commonly known as solipsism. In other words: Anything outside one’s own consciousness is unsure; the external world and other minds cannot be proven beyond doubt and they might not even exist outside our consciousness.

Solipsism is an important ingredient of many philosophies, including rationalism (cogito, ergo sum), idealism, nihilism, materialism, and positivism. So it is no big deal to endorse this view and Rumsfeld was not a trailblazer in philosophy by any means.

Back to the unknown unknowns, whose existence implies that there are certainly (and that is probably the only thing which is certain, though one could rightfully argue that even this certainty may be illusory in the end) few certainties, a lot uncertainties, and an unknown number of uncertain uncertainties. Which means in short, that all analysis, interpretations, and predictions are prone to fallacies, delusions, errors.

Which implies, that there is a high probability of wrong conclusions and forecasts.

And as everybody, who’s memory lasts long enough to compare headlines and social media memes over a period of more than a few weeks, can confirm, conclusions and forecasts are indeed most times wrong.

And yet, despite an evident dismal record of accuracy, political analysis, interpretations, and predictions are made by statesmen, experts, pundits, augurs, and fortune-tellers from all factions and denominations around the clock over all media channels casually and with impunity.

Why can they do that?

Because the public memory is even shorter than the public attention span and everything said today is completely forgotten tomorrow. The few lone dissenters pointing at the false prognosis are drowned by the media herd stampeding to the next story, which as always customarily will be garnished with more cheap analysis and predictions which will be buried and forgotten the next day.

Bad news, dark days, hard times

There are a lot of people who lie and get away with it, and that’s just a fact.
Donald Rumsfeld

At the moment it is nearly impossible to get an accurate view about the Ukraine and how things will develop is anybodies guess. The economy undoubtedly is in bad shape and one wonders why it has not already collapsed.

The severity of the situation is illustrated by a proposed legislation “On Ukraine’s Financial System During the Special Period,” which contains the following provision:

In the event of a martial law and a moratorium on disbursement of bank deposits such deposits may be used in order to satisfy the needs of the state during the special period by including such a proportion as will be determined by the Cabinet of Ministers into the state budget.”

The deposits which are used in this manner will be added to the national debt, and the owners of the deposits will be issued state bonds. The government will fulfill obligations to the bond holders after the special period is finished, using the national budget. Any hard currency deposits will be automatically converted into hryvnya using the official exchange rate, and will be returned to the owners in hryvnya.
Ukraine Map  02 2015
Ukraine’s Minister of Energy and Coal Industry Vladimir Demchishin just told the parliament, that Ukraine imports electricity from Russia at a “very adequate price“.

From Russia, a country which Ukraine intends to declare war against! (Beside that, from what funds did the Ukraine pay?)

Ukraine’s economy is so dependent on Russia’s that it still trades more with Russia than with any other country. From January-October 2014, Ukraine exported about 8.8 billion US$ worth of goods and services to Russia, while importing roughly 11.2 billion US$. Poland and Germany, the two countries that are supposed to be the new cornerstone of Ukraine’s economic future, accounted for 3.6 billion US$ of exports and 6.9 billion US$ of imports. Russia’s share of Ukraine’s exports and imports was 19 and 25 percent respectively, far larger than that of any other single country.

A few numbers:

Industry production declined 20 percent, export losses amounted to 55.5 billion US$, export of Ukrainian goods to the EU increased by only 2.1 percent despite a preferential trade regime since April 2014 (the Ukrainian government optimistically estimated that the removal of customs dues would increase exports to the EU by a third).

Automobile sales in January were 77 percent lower than January 2014 and sales for 2014 were 57 percent down on the previous year. 44 percent of people working in the automobile industry lost their jobs last year. Ukrainians have three times fewer cars than Russians and the average age of cars is 19-1/2 years.

Inflation in 2014 was finally declared to have been 25 percent, forecasts for 2015 are from 17 percent upwards. In January the inflation rate was 28.50 percent.
Ukraine inflation
The National Bank reported international reserves of a mere 6.4 billion US$ at the end of January. The hryvnia is trading at 25.25 to the dollar, it has lost 66 percent value against the dollar in one year.

The Ukraine needs 20 billion US$ till the end of the year just to pay maturing debt, but it is not clear where the money shall come from. The European Union, just skirmishing with Greeks new government, will have a hard time to open the purse for Ukraine while letting Greeks starve.

Will Ukrainians starve? Unemployment Rate is still a modest 8.90 percent, but average monthly wages are 4012.00 UAH = 160 US$, while consumer prices are rising to Western European levels (at least one point where the Ukrainian economy is fast catching up with Western standards).

Maybe it is not a bad idea for Ukrainians to begin growing food by themselves.

Fort Russ recently published an article “Lebensraum 2.0: Ukraine’s Economic Folly,” in which economist Vasily Koltashov argues that the bet on agriculture and euro-integration was wrong.

He says that the EU has not managed to fix its own economic problems. Right!

He says that Ukrainians are so impoverished that they cannot afford to buy European products. Right!

He says that Kiev and EU put their emphasis on agriculture and the elimination of industry and he thinks that is wrong. His objection is debatable.

If there would have been Ukrainian politicians or civil servants deserving to be categorized as strategists, and if there would have indeed been a strategy to strengthen agriculture this would have been a wise move because food scarcity will be an increasing global problem in the coming years.

It would have been even more reasonable and sensible to support small farmers and to distribute land to everybody who wants to start farming or gardening. By encouraging subsistence farming and gardening the Ukraine would be able to reduce imports and lift the wellbeing of the population even as Western luxury is out of reach for most persons.

The Ukraine has a fertile soil, and despite severe chemical and radioactive contamination in certain places there are wide areas where nature is still intact. The Ukraine can feed its population, this is a big difference to Greece, which is a wasteland (save the stunningly beautiful mediterranean islands, most owned by the superrich) and an ecological catastrophe.

While in Greece 30 percent of the land is threatened by desertification and not more than 24 percent are suitable for agriculture, Ukrainian soil is still intact and able to feed not only the 40 million people who still have not left for safe areas, but many others too. Ukraine was in the last three years the main supplier of wheat to Syria.

Ukraine is known as the region’s breadbasket thanks to its black “chernozem” soil, which is highly fertile and rich in organic matter called humus. Covering more than half the landmass of Ukraine, chernozem soil offers exceptional agronomic conditions for the production of a large range of crops, especially cereals and oilseeds.

Climatic conditions are generally favorable in Ukraine, though climatic variability — which is expected to increase with climate change — is a considerable risk.

Soil erosion is a problem and over the last decades, chernozem soil across the country has been increasingly degraded by poor land management and industrial agriculture. This process is accelerating. It is estimated that over 500 million tons of soil are eroded annually from arable land in Ukraine, resulting in a loss of fertility in over 32 million hectares of soil.

No-tillage (no plowing) agriculture would reduce soil erosion, small scale agriculture without chemical fertilizer and pesticide use would increase the humus layer. Reforestation, hedges and thickets everywhere in-between would help stabilize the climate and protect the soil against extreme weather events.
Chernozem Ukraine
The Ukraine could easily tap into the growing demand in Europe for organic (meaning not with glyphosate and 2,4-D poisoned) food, and growing crops without agrochemicals would have the additional benefits of preventing further soil erosion and saving money.

While this would be the most sensible strategy, in the Ukraine there are no sensible strategists in influential positions and ideas like the one just mentioned are beyond the intellectual scope of the oligarchs who run the show in Kiev.

The lack of insight and strategic thinking doesn’t matter anyway, because the fate of Ukraine is not anymore decided in Kiev, but in Washington, Brussels, Berlin, and at the headquarters of the big multinational corporations. The strategists of these entities of course have a plan, it is the “masterplan” which was already mentioned here in earlier blog posts:

First let the Ukraine go bankrupt. This would harm foreign investors and lenders, mainly Russia, France, Austria, Italy, Germany, and Hungary. Around 34 percent of Ukraine’s inbound investment comes from Germany, the Netherlands, Austria and the UK. US companies are not involved (except Templetons 4.6 percent stake in Ukraine bonds), the USA has so far delivered a meager one billion US$ to help Ukraine and thats it, the Americans will send more weapons but not write any more checks.

With or without bankruptcy the IMF will lend some further billions but impose strict austerity measures (cutting wages, pensions, subsidies, raising prices, reducing or eliminating public services). The economy will contract further, state revenue will decline further, qualified workers, engineers, technicians, scientists will emigrate and be welcomed in the West, where they will work for comparatively low wages and consequently decrease the influence of local unions. This is a win-win for the corporations.

The big Western companies will wait till the government is bankrupt and then buy all public assets for cheap. Land, water, infrastructure, buildings, everything will be owned by Western companies. The oligarchs will get their cut in the deal and they will be allowed to pillage the Ukraine (or what is left of it) further without any interference.

This is a clever plan but it is based on many assumptions which could be incorrect. All mentioned economic numbers and all accompanying considerations and explanations are only half of the picture, because half of Ukraine’s economy is informal. 

There is corruption and crime, a sad but nevertheless far-reaching aspect of the informal economy.

There’s a black market for nearly everything, there are the small deals without receipt, there is barter, neighbors helping neighbors, farmers markets, subsistence farming and gardening.

Many remote communities can survive without the centrally controlled support systems and many are glad when they are left alone by the authorities. One shouldn’t underestimate the resilience and the ingenuity of people when they are left to their own devices.

Considering all this it is not a given, that the Ukraine is a fruit easy to reach and ripe to be plucked by the disaster capitalists from the various equity firms and investment banks. National pride and resentment against outside interference could easily prevent Ukrainians to roll over and become debt slaves of and share croppers for global investment firms.

It will come out one day or the other how Ukrainian society is coping with the current trials but at the moment the final outcome is everybody’s guess.

One more point:

There were numerous comments by the usual cold war warriors that Ukraine is still suffering from the legacy of Soviet mismanagement.

GDP per capita PPP (Gross Domestic Product per capita adjusted by purchasing power parity) is not necessarily equivalent to the wellbeing of the population, but is often used to assess the economic progress of a country. GDP per capita PPP in Ukraine reached an all time high of 10507.22 US$ in 1990 (before the dissolution of the Soviet Union), and fell sharply after gaining independence to 4469.95 US$ in 1998. It only slowly climbed to 8508.01 US$ in 2013, still far below Soviet Times.

These are IMF statistics and the only conclusion one can reach from the numbers is, that the introduction of capitalism and the independence from Russia were an economic catastrophe for Ukraine.

Fertile killing fields

Death has a tendency to encourage a depressing view of war.
Donald Rumsfeld
funeral Ukraine child
It is crazy cold and the snow is crisp and has turned to ice in many places. Often there is a thin layer of snow over black ice and one has to be careful not to slip and fall. This is the time when old people fall down on the slippery ways and break a limp, causing them to spend some days in the hospital where they catch pneumonia, MRSA, or other difficult to treat infectious diseases. Usually they never completely recover from these infections and die in the end.

Winter is the time when the weak and ailing individuals are eliminated, this is true for animals and humans alike.

The old people in Donetsk and Gorlovka (Horlivka) are less likely to slip and break bones because they can rarely go outside because of the constant bombardment by Ukrainian artillery. And if they slip and get hurt they will not stay in hospital that long because all the hospital beds are occupied with badly injured victims of shelling. The hospitals are also deliberately targeted with artillery shells and missiles, so it is better not to stay there longer than absolutely necessary.

The old people though are not safe in the basements of the houses or in the bomb shelters either. There is no heating and often they have run out of food. The Ukrainian army tries to destroy as much infrastructure as possible, hitting power lines, pipes, and gas pumping stations.

Old people in Donetsk and Gorlovka will not die from pneumonia or MRSA, they will rather starve or freeze to death.

But their death will not mentioned in Western media and also the victims of artillery bombardments will not be mentioned. They will only be mentioned if there is a chance to blame pro-Russian separatists for the carnage. Sometimes when it is not possible to ignore an especially deadly attack the Western press will reside to prefabricated phrases like: “rebels accuse the government for the shelling,” which shall make it clear for the reader that these accusations are groundless and the rebels just killed their own people for whatever reason.
funeral Ukraine 9
How many people died until now is one of the unknowns and uncertainties of the Ukrainian war. The often cited number of 5,000 is even by the OSCE and UN considered as a gross underestimation. If one sums up statistics from hospitals, morgues, funeral notices, battlefield reports, insider hints, the number of 20,000 seems more accurate and plausible.

  4,000 civilians
  4,000 rebel militias
12,000 Ukrainian soldiers

Why do they have to die?

The Donbass is a coal mining area and since the late 19th century, it has become a heavily industrialized territory suffering from urban decay and industrial pollution. Soil and water are contaminated by factory emissions and the waste from mines and steel plants. Several chemical industry waste grounds in Donbass have become undermaintained and desolate, they pose a constant threat of major contamination to the environment.

The Donets Basin has a colder and more humid climate than the rest of Ukraine. Fog and clouds are common and there are only few sunny days, especially in winter. The vegetation is mainly steppe and soil erosion has led to desertification in wide areas.

Most social indicators, especially life expectancy, health, birth rates, drug abuse, are worse than in western Ukraine, the industry is interlinked with Russia and is not competitive in the Western European market. The infrastructure is in disrepair and has not been upgraded for decades, with the exception of the Donetsk airport, which was rebuilt in 2012 for 860 million US$. But the airport is completely destroyed now.
funeral donbass 3
Why do the rulers in Kiev not just let the eastern provinces go and let Russia pickup the bill of rebuilding the war-ravaged land?

Why don’t they take the chance to get rid of the majority of despised ethnic Russians with one stroke? Why don’t they split the country in a civil and painless way like the Czechs and Slovaks in 1993?

Donetsk and Luhansk, probably also Kharkiv and Zaporizhia, will never again be an integral part of the Ukraine, too much blood has been shed and too much hate built up. As part of the Ukraine these oblasts would be occupied territory with a resenting, disloyal, uncooperative population, and a never-ending bloody insurgency.

The ruling oligarchs in Kiev may be reckless, delusional, psychopathic, but they know that the war is damaging their business, they know that they could end with nothing (save the obligatory secret accounts in Switzerland or Cayman Islands). But the decision to wage war was not theirs and the decision to destroy as much of Donbass as possible was not theirs. This decisions were made in Washington and the war is not about the eastern provinces but about Russia.

The Donbass has to be devastated to make the rebuilding more costly for Russia.

In this war Russia is hurt and NATO just has to send weapons and advisors/trainers. This military help, even if it has to be significantly increased, is small change compared with the efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan. In Donbass Ukrainians bear the brunt of the pain, the Americans have just to give the directives. 

Clever again.

Resisting the slaughter

Poroshenko advisor Yury Biryukov posted on Facebook:

Got the first report on the implementation of the plan of the fourth wave of mobilization. Across the country, in each region. AND I DON’T GET IT!
I don’t understand the phrases, do not understand the facts.
… The heads of 14 rural councils of Ivano-Frankivsk oblast refused to accept the summons for notifications.
… 57% of notified conscripts in Ivano-Frankivsk region did not arrive for medical commission.
… 37% of notified conscripts of Ivano-Frankivsk region have left the territory of Ukraine.
… Heads of rural councils of Ternopil region openly sabotage events of notification, in case of appearance in the area of representatives of RVC – warn the residents of their own and surrounding villages.
… the head of the village council of Konyukhi, Kozovsky district reported that local people rented 2 buses and left for the territory of the Russian Federation.
… in the township of Colchino, Mukachevo district of Transcarpathian region, out of 105 people the summons were presented to only three: 9 persons do not reside at the address of registration, and 93 people during January left for “seasonal agricultural work”.
… over the last 30 days the state border in the Chernivtsi region was crossed by 17% of the total number of conscripts of the region. From unofficial sources it is known that hostels and motels in the border region of neighboring Romania are completely filled with Ukrainian men evading conscription.
… 19% of notified conscripts of Volyn oblast refused military service on religious grounds, although in previous years the percentage of rejects for this reason did not exceed 0.7 percent.

This post has since been removed from the Facebook page of Yury Biryukov.
funeral Ukraine 5
Anton Gerashchenko (advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov) posted on Facebook:

Tomorrow Mariupol will hold a rally against mobilization. Disaster!
I would like to calm everyone down. The situation is under control of the Ministry of Interior and SBU.
Each person who tomorrow comes to the rally against mobilization, will be detained for several hours for questioning, and after collecting the finger prints and photographing, will be let go FOR NOW.
Reminding, that I and my comrade, Boris Filatov, have submitted a bill about criminal liability for public calls for sabotaging mobilization.
This law is designed not against the mothers, who let their sons go and defend their motherland with tears in their eyes.
It is directed against paid and unpaid provocateurs, as well as brainwashed idiots, who under the orders of Russian special agencies, create panic and stir hysteria in the society, in order to brake the will of the Ukrainians to victory.
It will not work!
As soon as Verkhovnaya Rada and the President will support my and Boris’s law, all provocateurs calling for the sabotage of mobilization will be arrested!
dead Ukrainian soldier 1
There will have to be many arrests made because resistance to the war is increasing. Eligible men hide or flee to neighboring countries (preferable Russia), recruiters are harassed and chased out from villages. The hostels in the border areas of neighboring Russia and Romania are overcrowded with draft evaders.

In the Dnipropetrovsk region, which is thought to be solidly anti-Russian, thousands of men are hiding from the draft and more than 2,000 people who were drafted did not show up and simply evaporated.

In the Trancarpathia region in western Ukraine, entire villages have scattered across various borders to escape conscription. The head of the village council of Kosiv district in Ivano-Frankivsk region reports that the entire population of the village booked buses and moved to Russia to wait out the war.

On January 24, the residents of the villages Melniki, Zatishye, and Pishcha in the Volhynya region blocked cars of the district administration as they arrived. Inside the vehicles were representatives of the local administration and the military recruitment office, aiming to deliver call-up papers for the military mobilization. Protesters forced the authorities to tear up the papers. They were then allowed to leave and the people went home.“

In some villages in the Ternopil region, the heads of local councils did not participate in the distribution of call-up papers and tipped off residents about the arrival of military recruitment officers to give them the opportunity to hide or flee.
dead Ukrainian soldier 2
When the population of Kulevchi in the Odessa region learned that 240 call-up papers were en route to be served, within minutes 500 people gathered on the village square. Six officers of the recruitment authority arrived with the papers but they were met with hostility. When officials declared that refusal of conscription is punishable by criminal prosecution, people began to shout “No war” and “We want peace”. They reminded the officers that Ukraine has not declared martial law and that the Minsk ceasefire agreement of last September has not been formally renounced by the Ukraine government. They called the new wave of military mobilization illegal and the recruiting officers were forced to leave the village.

In the village of Limansky in Reni district, a representative of the military recruitment office arrived with call-up papers accompanied by two armed gunmen. It nearly cost them their lives, because 200 villagers surrounded them and attempted to lynch the three. Deputy Chairman Ivan Stadnikov of the Reni district state administration and Military Commissar Igor Skrypnik immediately went to the village. After difficult negotiations, a compromise was reached. But then the local residents seized the call-up papers, defiantly poured gasoline on them and set them alight — right before the eyes of the officials who had brought the papers to the village.”
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In Transcarpathia criminal charges have been filed against 47 fighters of the 128th Brigade for refusing to return to the Donbass area. The Military prosecutor accuses them of “absence in military unit or place of service without leave.” All of them were fighting in the east from May to September.

These are the tales of heroism one hopefully will see more often. The deserters, the conscientious objectors, the people who flee or hide from the draft are the sane ones, they are the heroes. The people who flee the fighting, who pack their things and leave the war zone are the heroes. The refugees are heroes, they are the sensible ones, realizing that it is better to lose one’s home than to lose one’s life.

The people who don’t leave, who take up arms and kill, they are either fools or psychopaths and criminals.

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Well, and if there is no place to go to?
And if you have to defend people who cannot leave because they are sick or impaired?

And if you are cornered and your life is threatened?
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Let it be enough for today…

Further reading: There is no meltdown